Poll: Medina gains while Hutchison loses ground

[sonias]

AAS 2/3/10
Poll: Medina gains while Hutchison loses ground
Medina is tops in small donors.

A poll released Tuesday found that Gov. Rick Perry has maintained his lead in the race for the Republican nomination for governor, while Wharton activist Debra Medina appears to have cut into U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's support.

In a Rasmussen poll of 538 Texans who say they are likely to vote in the March 2 Republican primary, 44 percent of respondents voiced support for Perry, 29 percent were for Hutchison, 16 percent backed Medina and 11 percent were undecided. The poll, conducted Monday with automated phone calls, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

When compared with a mid-January Rasmussen poll, Perry gained 1 percentage point, Medina gained 4 percentage points and Hutchison lost 4 percentage points. Medina began the year little known to voters but created a buzz with two strong performances in televised debates.

Well not sure what to make of this. I guess it's still good. I think that our Democratic nominee will be better off facing Perry in November. It will be clear cut - right wing crazy Perry vs middle of the road Democrat.

We still want a runoff however, so I'm hoping Medina is pulling some support from Perry as well. He has to stay below 50% and be forced into a runoff. }(

Sonia

[SteveM]

1. That 45% ultra-right-wing vote is like molten iron...

You can't even get near to siphon it off. It only takes a little effort to reach 50%. If Perry inexplicably loses, he will not face Obama in 2012; if he wins, he will.

Perry is the complete bully; he knows his stuff and what works against Democrats.

[sonias]

2. I agree that a lot of the R base is solid

But he's not there right now at 50%. I'm still hopeful that he'll end up in a runoff and that's got to hurt an incumbent.

Our candidate for the first time in decades will be well funded in November.

I think we would have a tougher time facing KBH in November since the moderates and independents would view them equally, and then vote their closer aligned party - and in Texas that usually means the Republican party.

I'm keeping hope alive! With Perry our likely opponent this fall - we have a much better shot at taking him out. He's Mr. 39% statewide.

Perry facing Obama in 2012 - you gotta be kidding me? He isn't even in their top 20 of possible considerations. The national party knows he's a nut case. Just like Sarah Palin. Good enough to raise money with their crazy base - but not good enough to win the nomination.

Sonia

[sonias]

3. Let me add some fundrasing nubmers for Bill White

BOR diary 2/2/10
Bill White Outraised Rick Perry, Kay Bailey Hutchison in 30-Day Totals

Key Point: The fact that Bill White raised more money and spent less money than either Rick Perry or Kay Bailey Hutchison is phenomenal.

Here are the fundraising totals from the 30-day out report:

            Contributions      Expenditures	       Cash on Hand
Bill White    $755,067             $209,220	        $6,420,102
Rick Perry    $734,365	         $1,910,632	       $10,442,558
Kay Bailey    $269,940           $3,397,549	       $10,011,341
Debra Medina  $145,857	           $107,825                $68,483
Farouk Shami    $2,778 	         $1,040,949	        $1,075,881 

:kick:

Yes we can!

Sonia

[SteveM]

4. I hope you are right about Rick Perry, but...

check out this month's issue of Texas Monthly and see who is on the cover and in the photo-shopped presidency. Remember, this is where George W. Bush came from; Perry is the latest (and far more aggressive and intelligent) in that product line.

[sonias]

5. Precisely my point

Do you think that America will do G.W. again? Exactly why Rick Perry doesn't stand a chance in hell winning the RNC nomination. Maybe, and I mean maybe some republican dolt will put him on the ticket as VP but he is not a big poll getter for the republican party nationally.

Yes the nut balls in Texas will want him to be the candidate, but after G.W. screwed America for 8 years - I highly doubt the Rs are ready to give another Texas candidate a shot. There is always Mitt Romney for them.

Here's a link to the Burka blog post from Nov. 2009. But I don't put a lot of stock in Paul Burka. He's biased for Republicans anyway.

Texas Monthly Burka blog 11/10/2009
Texas 2010: It’s all about 2012
Who is best situated to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2012? Gallup (October 31-November) finds that 71% of Republicans would “seriously consider” supporting Huckabee, with Romney and Palin at 65% each. Other names who show up on GOP presidential polls include Pawlenty, Gingrich, Giuliani, Barbour, Jindal, and Jeb Bush, none of whom are within telescope range of the top trio. But the top threesome all came out of 2008 as damaged goods. Huckabee was primarily a regional candidate in ‘08 and had a hard time expanding his appeal beyond the Bible Belt. Romney didn’t connect well with voters, and Palin was too polarizing.

(snip)
The main argument that I have heard against Perry’s presidential aspirations is that the rest of the nation will not elect another Texas president any time soon. They don’t love us, that’s for sure, but presidential elections are about issues and principles, not geography, and Perry’s brand of unapologetic conservatism is a perfect fit for the Republican party in the tea-party era. Timing is everything in politics. And, right now, the timing is right for Perry.

Perry's talk of secession - that's not going to play well nationally with the RNC. Maybe the Southern wing but not nationally.

Please let it be Perry in 2012. We will kick his ass!

Sonia