Texas Republicans in risky territory

[sonias]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49588.html">politico 2/16/11
Texas Republicans in risky territory

With the governorship and big majorities in the Legislature, Republicans control all the levers of redistricting in Texas. Even so, they might not be able to protect two of the state’s three newly elected House GOP freshmen in the upcoming round of redistricting.

Because of factors ranging from geography to demography to the Voting Rights Act, GOP redistricting experts in Austin and Washington concede they have limited options in designing secure districts for first-term Reps. Francisco Canseco and Blake Farenthold — despite the fact that the state is gaining four congressional seats.

Without safer districts, Canseco and Farenthold will be at serious risk in 2012, since each won with less than 50 percent against Democratic incumbents last November, benefited from low midterm turnout and rode a huge GOP tide.

“We didn’t expect those two seats to become Republican,” said GOP state Sen. Kel Seliger, who chairs the Senate redistricting committee. “Those were Democratic seats and majority-minority seats. Now, we have to look at whether there are enough Hispanics to create new districts.”

Democrats and Hispanic activists believe federal judges will insist the VRA says there are enough Hispanics, even if the Legislature does not go along.

[sonias]

1. Minorities Drove Texas Growth, Census Figures Show

Texas Tribune 2/18/11
Minorities Drove Texas Growth, Census Figures Show

The state's explosive growth during the past decade was fueled by a boom in its minority population, which accounted for 89 percent of the total increase in population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Hispanics alone accounted for 65 percent of the state's growth over the last 10 years.

(snip)
The state's Hispanic population grew 42 percent over the decade. The black population was up 22 percent. Both outgrew the white population in percentage terms and in raw numbers. The white population grew by 4.2 percent. And while Texas added 464,032 whites over the decade, it added 522,570 blacks and 2.8 million Hispanics. In 17 counties, the Hispanic population grew by more than 100 percent.

(snip)
“You have this aging set of Anglos, literally aging off the end of their life chart who are going to need assistance in terms of Social Security, Medicare and in terms of direct care. At the same time, you have a young population that is overwhelmingly minority that needs the financial assistance through taxes and other factors of the older Anglo population to help get the education it needs to be competitive,” he said.

(snip)
“We’ve had phenomenal rates of growth and we in Texas generally like that growth but we also have to prepare to pay for the implications,” he said. “It means more infrastructure, more educational services. I worry a great deal, if we forget with our older Anglo population that younger population, because that younger population is the future of Texas,” he said.

Just to emphasize the facts about where those extra Congressional seats should go. Not that Texas Rs pay much attention to facts that don't suit their world view and greed, of course. :shrug:

:kick:

[Gothmog]

2. Interesting chart

Here is a very interesting chart on the population shift by congressional district http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/02/17/946345/-Texas:-Population-by-CD The Texas 22 and the Texas 10 will both need to be redrawned heavily.

[sonias]

4. Thanks for the link to the DK diary

Both of those two districts #10 & #22 are anchored in Harris & Fort Bend Counties which of course have grown tremendously.

This redistricting cycle is going to be brutal. I fully expect that the Rs are going to play the same game as last time - go ahead and pack the minorities in gerrymandered districts and wait for the lawsuits to begin. In the meantime they increase their Congressional seats and wait it out. By the time the lawsuits get settled it's been 6-8 years and they've gotten essentially what they wanted.

It sucks to be in the minority party when redistricting comes around.

:(

[Gothmog]

8. The DOJ is going to have to redraw the boundaries

The DOJ has to approve the new redistricting lines and we have real voting rights experts in charge as compared to the bozos running the office under bush. There is no way that the DeLay boundaries would have been approved by the DOJ if the voting rights experts were consulted. The bush DOJ overruled the staff with respect to both the Texas boundaries and the Georgia voter id law.

The texas repugs are not going to be able to gerrymander the districts this time.

[ParkieDem]

3. I'm not so sure, unfortunately ...

Yes, the legislature will be forced to draw another majority-minority district, no doubt. But in some parts of Texas, that does not always mean a Dem will be elected. Due to the weakening of the state party, our outreach to Hispanic voters has suffered in recent years. In some elections, as much as 40-45% of Hispanics have been voting Republican. This HAS to change.

All I'm saying is that unless we work hard, we can't take the Hispanic vote for granted.

[sonias]

5. It's true that our party has not been well funded for Latino outreach

That is absolutely true and we've seen the result of that. I really don't think that it's been a priority for the state party, but I don't think that's due to lack of desire. It's more due to lack of funding. It will take a huge financial commitment to increase Latino voter turnout and outreach and you don't see corporate donors lining up to do that like they are for the repuke party.

Which is why the Dems have tried to do it on the cheap i.e. with Latino names on the ballot hoping that will be enough. It's not obviously.

The other side of that coin however is that the Texas Rs have a Latino name problem in the primaries. Qualified Latino candidates, even incumbents, can be knocked off by Anglo names very easily. When their base comes out to vote in the primary - they vote against Latino names. This is what is now known as the Victor Carrillo problem.

No doubt that the future is and will be strongly rooted in attracting more Latino voters to our candidates.

:kick:

[ParkieDem]

6. Very true.

The Carrillo problem is real - and really too bad; from what I understand he was a decent guy for a Republican.

But you're very correct about the Latino name - just having a Latino name on the ballot won't make a Latino vote for that particular person (which is good, IMHO; every voter should look beyond the name).

[sonias]

7. Hispanic Population Growth Complicates Texas GOP's Redistricting Hopes

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/02/hispanic-popula.php#_Toc285792913">Hotline On Call 2/17/11
Hispanic Population Growth Complicates Texas GOP's Redistricting Hopes

(snip)
The Census findings complicate Republicans' hopes for a partisan gerrymander during this redistricting process. The Democratic lean of Hispanic voters and Voting Rights Act requirements that protect the group's voting strength from being watered down means that despite Republican control of the redistricting process, the GOP will struggle to make the map much more favorable to their party.

"The numbers will dictate what is possible and what can be done," said Republican State Sen. Kel Seliger, one of the Republicans tapped to run the redistricting process. Seliger predicted there would be at least one more Hispanic opportunity district in the Rio Grande Valley, but said it was too early to predict whether there should be a second Latino-influence district, something Hispanic groups have called for, because he has yet to analyze the Citizen Voting Age Population data that they must use to draw the lines.

The new data also suggests that Texas Republicans will need to effectively compete for the Hispanic vote in the future to win statewide contests. If the growth continues and Republicans fail to make additional inroads with the Hispanic electorate, Texas could become a swing state sooner rather than later.

Republicans performed better among Hispanics in Texas in the 2010 elections than they did in several other states with sizable Hispanic populations. Gov. Rick Perry took 38 percent of the vote last year, better than other Republicans in recent years, and the GOP picked up two House seats in majority-Hispanic districts.

:shrug:

[thanks_imjustlurking]

9. One more seat in my neck of the woods.

http://juanitajean.com/2011/02/18/fort-bend-will-get-a-new-state-house-seat/

[sonias]

10. I hope so!

There has been huge growth in Fort Bend!

Congratulations and hopeful you will get your very own Congress person!

:toast:

[Gothmog]

11. Fort Bend Democrats had nice event Friday night

The Fort Bend Democrats has a nice event Friday night. Susan and Don were in good form.

Ron Reynolds, one of the 49 Democrats in the Texas house, was also there.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the redistricting. I fully expect to see the DOJ have to step in and redo whatever boundaries that repugs try to come up with