where webb v. allen stands as of 11:00 am Wednesday

[onenote]

Below is information taken from the Virginia Elections website. As you can see, it reports that Webb is holding a lead of around 7000 votes with four precincts still not reporting. I have taken a look at those four missing precincts and here is what I've found.

Two of the four are in James City County, which is in the 3rd Congrssional District. The two precincts that are not showing any votes are "Absentee vote" (which is a surrogate "precinct") and Roberts 2. Looking at the results for the 2004 and 2005 elections in virginia, neither of these "precincts" reported any votes in those two elections. IN other words, they are not active precincts any more. No one votes in them.

So that leaves two precincts. One is in Isle of Wight in the 4th Congressional District. The precinct is Raynor. In 2004, 266 votes were cast in Raynor, with around 80 for Kerry and 180 for Bush. However, in 2005, the margin was much closer, with Kilgore getting aroun 93 votes and Kaine getting 76. In any event, its a small number of votes and is likely only to bring Allen marginally closer.

The last missing precinct is close to home: its the absentee vote "precinct" for the 11th Congressional District and the news is good. In 2004, nearly 1000 votes were cast in this "precinct" and they went to Kerry by a margin of about 100 votes. In 2005, slightly under 400 votes were cast, with a margin of 70 votes for Kaine.
So its likely that these votes will skew slightly towards Webb and probably offset whatever gain Allen gets in Isle of Wight

So, my prediction: when all is said and done, its still around 7000 vote lead for Webb. Not enough to avoid a recount, but probably too much (hopefully) to overcome in a recount.





Office: U.S. Senate

Precincts Reporting: 2439 of 2443 (99.84%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,674 Total Voting: 2,365,079 Voter Turnout: 51.92 %
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,171,813 49.55%
G F Allen Republican 1,164,767 49.25%
G G Parker Independent Green 26,160 1.11%
Write Ins 2,339 0.10%
View Results by District Locality Vote Totals: -- Total: 2,365,079

[electricmonk]

1. Thanks

I was just thinking about looking up the missing precincts. Saved me some trouble there.

[underpants]

2. Good work

:thumbsup: