Julia Gillard Australia's new PM

[gemini_liberal]

Won't bother sourcing it. You've all heard it.

Interesting twist of events. I'm half-half about this. I fear it is caving to Andrew Bolt et al. OTOH, we have a female PM from the Victorian left.

Labor can use this opportunity to pick up the ETS again (and probably drop the RSPT) on the grounds of "new leader, new policies"

[Matilda]

1. It had to be done, and Julia remained loyal to Kevin to the end.

In fact, the only person who didn't believe in her loyalty was Kevin Rudd himself. Apparently, it was yesterday's polling by Alister Jordan that prompted her to finally agree to contest the leadership.

I feel sad for Rudd and the loss of all that early promise, but his political judgment is terrible - in the end, he turned out to be more a bureaucrat than a politician. Labor's support is down to its core believers, and the thought of Abbott as PM is too scary - that's what caused Paul Howes to withdraw the support of the MWU yesterday. Without the two biggest unions, Labor's funding would be cut drastically.

It's still a bit hard to comprehend the slide we've seen over just three months, but at last I feel we can see some daylight at the end of the tunnel. Gillard is a terrific parliamentary performer – it just remains to be seen whether she's prepared to make U-turns on an ETS and the mining tax (which I think is necessary, but badly timed).

So we'll say goodbye to Rudd and his little South Park face from the frontbench. I feel sorry that it had to happen like this.

[depakid]

2. Kevin started losing control of the narrative back in January

which only amplified the policy missteps and flip flops.

Not having Labors ducks in a row before taking on the mining industry was pretty much the last straw.

[Matilda]

3. I couldn't understand why the tax was announced just months before the election.

It should have been a second-term tax. Doesn't matter if the deficit wouldn't be reduced as quickly; it really isn't that important; we didn't have a full recession, and that's what counts. Our deficit is way below that of all other advanced countries, and so what if it was going to take a few more years to pay it down? The focus of the May Budget should have been on winning the election, not announcing new taxes. It was suicide. I think it was another case of Rudd being spooked by Abbott; there must have been a lot more insecurity there than we ever guessed.

The worst is that both Gillard and Swan are also culpable in that decision-making process – we can only hope that they've learned from their mistakes and are ready to backflip.

[depakid]

4. It was a "precipitous" decision to be sure

and it was not only framed poorly (when it was framed at all) but Labor's own supporters- and even members of the cabinet didn't know it was coming.

Thus they killed in the media- even on local ABC talk and Triple J.

Gillard's now framed the issue as one of fairness and fair return on our resources and retuning the budget to surplus- in addition to shoring up Super.

[Matilda]

5. Gillard's off to a flying start.

She's cancelled the government's ads on the mining tax and challenged the mining industry to do the same.

"Today, I will ensure that the mining advertisements paid for by the Government are cancelled and, in return for this, I ask the mining industry to cease their advertising campaign as a sign of good faith and mutual respect."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/24/2935931.htm?section=justin

How can the mining industry not respond in kind without looking churlish?

[depakid]

6. Yep- her speech and handling the press questions afterward was masterful

The rhetorical flow went like this:

Personal background, VALUES, beliefs, principles- action. We have them (on the issues) the opposition doesn't.

As a new Australian still a few years from full citizenship, I'm still prone to Americanisms- but sometimes they apply very well- so the way I'd put it in is her performance here confirms that Julia Gillard is bad to the bone.

Along with her background as the daughter of a coal miner- she also brings formidable skill sets from her time as an industrial relations lawyer to bear on the mining tax. She'll be able to turn this into a net positive or at least a wash- whereas Kevin was going to keep taking hits.

Also- probably goes without saying, Question Time should be most entertaining. Wish we had to time to get down to the gallery in person!

[Matilda]

7. Been watching all I can on the computer.

Lindsay Tanner won't be recontesting Melbourne. That's a loss for the party; he's very capable. Making his valedictory speech right now. Very good speech.

Interesting thing about that seat is the very high Green support there - could they win a lower house seat with Melbourne?

[gemini_liberal]

8. Probably not

With Rudd, I rated the chances of the Greens taking Melbourne as low, despite high polling.

It really depends on Gillard, but judging by the things she is saying, I think Labor are going to make up some ground with the left.

Tanner going is both sad, and will add to the challenge of Labor retaining Melbourne.

[Matilda]

9. I wondered why he wasn't the new deputy PM.

He'd have been my choice over Swan; now it's explained.

[gemini_liberal]

10. Sort of

Tanner is also in the Victorian left faction, just like Gillard. It'd be a bit of a hard ticket to sell to the caucus.

Also, it'd be a but of an insult to pass over Swan, despite being a fairly successful Treasurer.

Actually, having a Deputy who probably will never be leader may be healthy. That's the comfort Abbott feels, not having a Deputy eye your job!

[depakid]

15. Apparently the swing is fairly close- and the Greens had gotten most of the coalition's preferences

Not sure how that will go with Tanner choosing not to stand this time around.

[Matilda]

16. I watched Rudd's farewell speech,

and I couldn't help wondering whether he will ever really understand what went wrong.

First, his speech waffled on for about 15 minutes, and most of it was boring. Yes, he paused frequently, emotions always near the surface, but that highlighted one thing – he desperately needed a good speech writer to help him get his message across. He has too often bored everyone silly with endless statistics and repetition, and his message has so often been lost in translation. A red pen should have gone through at least half of his speech. When you're going, it's best to just go quickly.

The second was the fulsome tribute he paid to his "young team" – young and energetic they might have been, but they were also ignorant and inexperienced. He was clearly getting a lot of very bad advice on policy decisions and timing. In politics, you need to balance youth and energy with political expertise and experience; there's no substitue for that.

He particularly praised Alister Jordan, although was he who caused the bucket to tip over on Rudd's head – does Kevin realise that? It was wrong to send him out to get the numbers – it's experienced politicians who do that, people like John Faulkner. And what's worse, Jordan leaked what he was doing to the press, and it was a slap in the face for Julia Gillard. It clearly signalled that no matter what she said about being loyal to Rudd, he didn't believe her. That might have been his own insecurity, but an experienced chief of staff would have guided him to handle it differently.

That's when I thought "will you ever truly realise just where you went wrong?", and somehow I think the answer might be "no".

[gemini_liberal]

18. I actually think that was his best speech as PM

It was the first time we saw the real Kevin Rudd. Flawed, emotional (yet controlled) and with good humour. Had this been the Kevin Rudd of the last few years, we may not be here.

I didn't think much of him praising his staff and advisors. I just saw that as him being gracious and loyal. Despite their bad advice at times, he probably holds them personally in high esteem.

I think the young team problem is overcompensation for Howard who surrounded himself with the old and rigid - which bogged him down. I think a balance between both youthful and experienced is what you need, you need both your Kate Ellises and your John Faulkners.

Despite the talking points it may generate, I hope he is appointed Foreign minister. He seems to be at his best when he is on the world stage, and he is a good useful tool for the government. I don't think Rudd was bad, he just takes too much on board, which is bad for a PM leading a large team leading the nation. Foreign Affairs will be a good use of a still great Labor talent.

[Matilda]

19. I thought of Foreign Affairs, too,

because that's the only portfolio he's ever held before, but I don't imagine Stephen Smith would give it up without a fight. As he's a key mover and shaker, he does have some clout.

Tanner will leave a vacancy in Finance, which is a top portfolio, and his experience in Queensland might fit him for that. The other key portfolio is Defence, which doesn't seem to be a good fit for him, and Julia will leave Industrial Relations and Education vacant. But there's no doubt that his talents are best suited for Foreign Affairs.

[gemini_liberal]

11. May I just say that seeing Abbott squirm today was hilarious!

He really is unable to be gracious at all. He came off as mean and desperate for dirt in his reaction speech.

He is really intimidated by her! He was not wanting this!

[Matilda]

12. He's still at it.

Attacking Labor (i.e. Gillard) for a "sleazy, shoddy deal" in the "assassination" of Kevin Rudd. Slinging the dirt in all directions.

Some of it might come back to him when Julia gets up to reply.

[Matilda]

13. Just occurred to me looking through photos of the day,

and our first female PM was sworn in by our first female Governor-General.

Okay, I'd rather we didn't have a G-G at all, but when I was a child, this scenario would have been unthinkable.

[gemini_liberal]

14. An historic day indeed.

We join the UK, NZ and much of Europe in finally breaking this barrier.

I'm proud. (Don't care if she hasn't won an election yet, I am still proud)

[anakie]

17. Hooray

n/t