Whats Wrong with Waukesha Wisconsin? More Anomalies in Prosser and Kloppenburg Race

[deminks]

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Whats-wrong-with-Waukesha-by-Eric-Nelson-110419-812.html?show=votes#allcomments

(snip)

With all of these anomalies and calls for investigations and considering the initial closeness of the race between Prosser and Kloppenburg we decided to look at some of the county by county election totals. We went under the hypothesis that any major attempt at election fraud by either party might shift variables that presumably would be mostly random into something that might be less random.

We compared the vote totals per ward to the vote spread between the two candidates in counties that were strongly partisan. Because some of these counties had significant differences in vote totals we combined multiple counties in some cases and normalized the data so that the standard deviation was between 60-75% of the median vote for each county.

We noticed a very interesting difference, of about 15 different counties that we looked at that were either strongly Democratic or strongly Republican, only Waukesha county and to a lesser extent Washington and Ozaukee showed positive correlations between vote totals and vote spread (see figure 1 below). What this means is that in Waukesha as the number of votes that were tabulated in a particular ward became larger the magnitude of Prosser's victory tended to become larger.

When we looked at counties where Kloppenburg won by a large margin such as Dane, Ashland and Bayfield counties there was no correlation between the vote total in a particular ward and the vote spread between Kloppenburg and Prosser. This was also true for Douglas and Eau Claire counties.

(end snip)

[Jackpine Radical]

1. Thanks for this.

I just emailed the link to the Kloppenburg campaign.

K&R

[Blue Owl]

2. Thanks for the update

Let's keep the pressure on for a RECOUNT and better yet and INVESTIGATION of likely vote-flipping.

[postulater]

3. Vewwwwy Intewesting!

[catgirl]

4. K&R

[bahrbearian]

5. Hand Count Recount, Hand count.....

[SlimJimmy]

6. You skew the data when you combine totals and normalize.

we combined multiple counties in some cases and normalized the data so that the standard deviation was between 60-75% of the median vote for each county.

[OnTheOtherHand]

7. that wouldn't induce the correlation, if I understand rightly

It does render the scatterplots practically uninterpretable. w00t!

From the OpEdNews piece:

One explanation would be that higher voting wards and more populous wards tend to vote more Republican. But that goes against the conventional wisdom and well established national trends that urban areas in the Midwest and Northeast vote more Democratic and rural areas vote more Republican.

This is weak. No part of Waukesha Co. is all that "urban" in the usual sense. But Kloppenburg did do better in the "city" wards in Waukesha Co. than in the towns and villages. The problem is that the city reporting units tend to contain fewer votes than the non-city reporting units. In the cities of Brookfield, New Berlin, and Waukesha, each ward is reported separately. That doesn't mean they are rural.

[SlimJimmy]

8. You are correct. Once data is combined it would render any scatterplot virtually useless. (nt)

[midnight]

9. I wish I could understand this...

"What this means is that in Waukesha as the number of votes that were tabulated in a particular ward became larger the magnitude of Prosser's victory tended to become larger."

[OnTheOtherHand]

10. more votes -> bigger Prosser win

On average. (Really it should say "in a particular reporting unit" -- a reporting unit can contain one or more wards.)

Does that help?

[Ellipsis]

11. We'll find out. All wards with Optech Eagles will be hand counted, that's all of Waukesha county