The utterly astonishing numbers on the anti gay amendment in NC

[dsc]

In 2008, Californians over 65 split 61 to 39 in favor of prop 8. In North Carolina a bare majority oppose the NC amendment. That is an improvement of about 11 points. In 2008, African Americans voted at least 60 to 40 in favor of prop. 8. In North Carolina they are splitting 61 to 39 against the amendment. That is an improvement of 20 points. Yes, prop 8 is far less restrictive than the proposition being considered in North Carolina but folks, we are talking about the state that reelected Jesse Helms in 1996. I am still skeptical about these numbers on some level but we have now seen three polls with similar results. If we were to actually defeat this at the polls in NC it would be the shot heard round the country. These numbers suggest we might well. Overall we are at 55 to 30 in our favor with 15 undecided.

[11cents]

1. Well, a big caveat -- if you're comparing poll results in NC with election results in Cal.

When Prop 8 made the ballot, polls showed overwhelming opposition. It was pretty much written off as a lost cause. The "Yes" vote didn't start climbing until late in the campaign, helped along by the big ad campaign largely underwritten by the Catholic and Mormon churches.

That said, I think if Prop 8 were on the ballot now in California, it would lose.

[OnTheOtherHand]

5. great points

We haven't yet seen the effect of the campaign to "educate" North Carolinians that they are actually voting on something else. Still, it's an encouraging result at this point -- and a lot has happened since 2008.

[zazen]

2. is it verbal or written survey? some anti GBLT are embarrassed to admit it

in a phone interview, but would vote for the amendment at the polls. This has happened with questions about racism. The fact that some would feel embarrassed to be anti-GLBT would still be an improvement in attitude change, since it used to be you were suspect if you supported GLBT.

NC has changed in the 45 years I've lived here. The urban centers are highly diverse and generally more progressive and we have strong GLBT communities.

[barbtries]

3. the world does change.

this may be the moment for GLBT equal rights. i hope so. there simply is no logical or fair opposition to equal rights for everybody.

[blkmusclmachine]

4. Whatever decision the "vote counters" want, is the decision the "vote counters" get.

n/t

[OnTheOtherHand]

6. yum, tasty fatalism for breakfast!

I strongly suspect that Obama won North Carolina in 2008 because the voters wanted it, not because "the 'vote counters'" did.

There's even evidence. In North Carolina, there is a paper record (either a ballot or a voter-verifiable paper audit trail) of every vote. A random sample of those records was audited, and the audit supported the substantial accuracy of the original count.

I know some of the North Carolina election integrity activists who have worked to make the system even that good, and who are working to make it better. I'm pretty sure they would agree that "We're doooooooooomed!" is not a true or helpful message.