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But first, Al’s big night out. Former vice president-turned-Hollywood favorite Al Gore stole the show with last night’s Oscars, fueling speculation that he could make another run for the White House. Hollywood’s brightest stars showered Al Gore with praise, who played along, making this “Saturday Night Live”-esque announcement.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
AL GORE, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Even though I honestly had not planned on doing this, I guess, with a billion people watching, it’s as good a time as any. So, my fellow Americans, I’m going to take this opportunity right here and now to formally announce my intention to...
(MUSIC PLAYS)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCARBOROUGH: So will all that star power from the West Coast propel the failed candidate to make another run? And does America feel the same love for Al Gore that Hollywood does?
Here now to talk about it, John Nichols from “The Nation.” And still with us, “Time” magazine’s Joe Klein and MSNBC political analyst Pat Buchanan.
Joe Klein, let me start with you. Do you think if Al Gore jumped into this race he could become the Democratic nominee and possibly the next president of the United States?
JOE KLEIN, “TIME” MAGAZINE: Yes, if he stays loose. I mean, he’s been very good playing against his stiffness, as you just saw. And after the 2000 race, he vowed that he would never run another campaign that was over-managed by consultants. Now, if he sticks to that, and if he comes in maybe next September, I think he’d have a real shot.
SCARBOROUGH: You know, Joe, of course—and a lot of people have said this over the past eight years, but, I mean, I thought Al Gore was stiff and awkward. At one point I called him a dork on the campaign trail. I thought he was just awful.
And then, the night that he conceded, I just saw a side of a man I had never seen in public office, and that looseness has seemed to move forward over the next six, seven years. I mean, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama certainly both have reasons to be concerned about this man jumping in the race, right?
KLEIN: Well, I think that, on both sides, given a race that’s this long, a candidate who comes in next fall might have a real shot, especially someone who could raise, you know, millions and millions of dollars in about 43 seconds on the Internet like Al Gore.
I mean, just think of what’s going to happen for the next six months in both the Democratic and Republican parties. It’s going to be a constant process of diminution. There are going to be all these candidate forums where you have to kiss the ring of the special interests, or the Republicans have to tell, you know, the NRA that they’re in favor of everybody carrying a bazooka, and Democrats have to tell NARAL that they’re in favor of abortion two weeks after birth.
And so, by next September, the public may well be tired of all this and ready for a fresh face, even one that isn’t so fresh.
SCARBOROUGH: And, John Nichols, Al Gore can just stand on the sidelines and wait. I mean, as Joe Klein just suggested, the second he ran, all of the people that gave money or a lot of the people that gave money back in 2004 to a certain governor from Vermont, Howard Dean, would flood Al Gore with millions and millions of dollars. Unlike Howard Dean, Al Gore would know how to use that money.
I mean, he’s a very dangerous candidate for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, isn’t he?
JOHN NICHOLS, “THE NATION”: I think you’re exactly right. Because one of the mistakes we political reporters make is to focus too much on the personalities, although they’re important, and too little on the dynamic of the year.
If you look at 2008, it’s not shaping up as a fresh-face year. It’s shaping up as a year where an election is going to play out against the backdrop of a war in Iraq, potentially, if Alan Greenspan is right, a bit of a recession.
SCARBOROUGH: A coming recession.
NICHOLS: That’s right. And so voters start to look at a situation like that for an alternative to an unpopular president—George Bush is not popular—but not for somebody who is kind of new hand, somebody that they don’t know.
I think the year may well be shaping up as an ideal one for Al Gore. And you might see that many of the people who right now are giving money to Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama might, come September or October, be willing to give a check to Nobel Peace Prize-winner Al Gore.
SCARBOROUGH: No doubt. And, I’ll tell you what, things look like they could be shaping up for Al Gore in a way. And, you know, I remember when Pat Buchanan ran for president. He had all of the Hollywood luminaries just clawing their way to try to help him.
(LAUGHTER)
Let’s take a look at some of those same Hollywood stars gushing over Al Gore last night.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MELISSA ETHERIDGE, MUSICIAN: Mostly I have to thank Al Gore for inspiring us, inspiring me, showing that caring about the Earth is not Republican or Democrat.
DAVIS GUGGENHEIM, DIRECTOR: All of us who made this film, Laurie, Lawrence, Scott and Leslie, we did so because we were moved to act by this man.
(APPLAUSE)
All of us were inspired by his fight for 30 years to tell this truth to all of us.
GEORGE CLOONEY, ACTOR: I was just backstage with Jack Nicholson and Vice President Gore drinking. I don’t think he’s running for president.
(LAUGHTER)
ELLEN DEGENERES, HOST, “THE ELLEN DEGENERES SHOW”: Jennifer Hudson was on “American Idol.” America didn’t vote for her, and yet she’s here with an Oscar nomination. Al Gore is here. America did vote for him, and then it’s...
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCARBOROUGH: You know, Pat, first of all, if Clooney is right and you can’t drink and be president of the United States, I’m going to just—I’m going to draw a line through that goal of mine and move onto the next one.
BUCHANAN: It’s a foolish consideration.
SCARBOROUGH: Pat, Al Gore obviously absolutely beloved by these Hollywood stars. Does it translate to Middle America, though? I mean, this guy is becoming a rock star out there when you talk about the environment.
BUCHANAN: Well, he doesn’t have to translate right now to Middle America. But, Joe, he’s got two tremendous aces. He’s Mr. Environment. He was right on the war. Like Teddy Kennedy, he’s much better when he’s not an active candidate, you know, when he’s no longer running for something.
I think you all are exactly right. His problem, however, is one person. That is Obama, because Obama has something he doesn’t have: He’s got freshness; he’s got charisma.
SCARBOROUGH: But the same people that are supporting Obama would support Al Gore, would they not, Pat? I mean, Gore is the smart anti-war vote.
BUCHANAN: What I’m saying is that Obama has got to fade for Gore to move. He’s got to be knocked down. And if he is knocked down, Gore should drive right in there, because then I think he could win.
But you take a risk, because Iowa is not—is a state where it’s caucuses. If you line up supporters who can get out votes early, you’ve got a tremendous advantage. And it’s tough to overcome that, and Iowa would be crucial.
Another thing. Al Gore came in 40 pounds overweight for spring training, Joe. He has got to—look, you went out for football, Joe. You when a coach sees some guy waddling onto the field, he’s been eating all winter, it’s hellish. And he’s got to lose that, and he’s got to—then I think he can do it.
SCARBOROUGH: You know, my coach always told me that I’d been cheating on my wind sprints over the summer. And it was very obvious.
Joe Klein, you know, an interesting—Pat Buchanan raises an interesting dynamic here. Barack Obama has to fade for Al Gore to get in. So what does that mean? That means Hillary Clinton’s people have to be careful that they don’t batter and bruise Barack Obama too much, because if they knock him out of the race, they could encourage Al Gore, right, a man that they certainly have to fear a lot more than a two-year U.S. senator.
KLEIN: I don’t know about that. In all the presidential elections since 1960, the times that we’ve changed parties, five of the six times, the election has been won by a relatively inexperienced candidate, you know, from John Kennedy to George W. Bush. So I think that there may be—and I disagree with John Nichols about this—there may be a real market for freshness here.
But Pat’s right. If Obama starts to fade, and it really looks like Hillary is going to win the nomination, Al Gore will have another motivation. He can’t stand her. I mean, and she can’t stand him. The two of them have been fighting since the summer of 1993 when they were vying to be—who was going to be the more important vice president.
BUCHANAN: And, Joe, listen, if Al Gore says the world is coming to an end and he’s got a shot at the presidency, how in Heaven’s name can he be consistent and say, “I’m going to go off and make another movie”?
SCARBOROUGH: And, John Nichols, let me ask you about—if you’re a Democrat, and you want to win—and I understand freshness, that’s great for bread, it’s great for presidential candidates—but Joe Klein talks about a comparison between John Kennedy and Barack Obama.
John Kennedy, if I remember my 1988 vice presidential debate accurately, John Kennedy had been in the House for six years, he’d been in the Senate for six years. If I’m a Democrat, that seems like a lot safer bet, somebody with experience, more than a guy that’s been around for two years in Washington, D.C., and didn’t even vote on the Iraq war.
NICHOLS: Let me offer you this factoid. If you take all of the federal elective experience of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards, add it together, you still don’t begin to reach—in fact, you’re still 10 years behind Al Gore’s experience.
Now, Joe may be right. Maybe 2008 will be the year where people are feeling really loose. The economy is great, the war is over, everything’s fine, and so they think they can take a shot on somebody new for the presidency.
But my suspicion is that it’s going to be a year in which people are going to be very serious about their choice. They’re going to want an alternative to the Bush era, but they won’t necessarily want to take another risk on somebody they don’t know much about. And I think all those factors favor Gore.
SCARBOROUGH: You’re right. And if you look at Iraq, if you look at Afghanistan, if you look at Pakistan, if you look at Iran, if you look at North Korea, now is no time to take a chance on somebody who’s untested.
John Nichols, Joe Klein, Pat Buchanan, thanks so much for being with me. Greatly appreciate it.
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