Tomorrow, Kerry has hearing on Middle East with Tony Blair as the only witness

[karynnj]

THE MIDDLE EAST:
THE ROAD TO PEACE
HEARING
before the

COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
UNITED STATES SENATE
ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS
FIRST SESSION
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Time: 2:00 P.M.
Place: 419 Dirksen Senate Building
Presiding: Senator Kerry


Witnesses:
+ The Right Honorable Tony Blair
Former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
and Envoy on the Middle East
London, UK


http://foreign.senate.gov/hearings/2009/hrg090514p.html

This should be real interesting as this is what Blair has worked on since he left office. (I still haven't watched the Pakistan one from yesterday with Holbooke, which sounds like it was very interesting. Next Thursday, he has another Pakistan hearing with Admiral Mullins. He also has 2 (yes 2) climate change hearings on Tuesday - CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR U.S.-CHINA COOPERATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE at 10:15 and A “GREEN” GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY after the business meeting at 2:15!

The Green Global Economic Recovery one has Nickolas Stern, the Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science. I think he's the one who wrote a report that estimated that the recurring costs of NOT dealing with climate change were ultimately far higher than dealing with it that Kerry has quoted often in the last few years.


He really is using the SFRC chair in an exceptional way. It looks like he is trying to break the record on number of hearings and many have been exceptional!

[wisteria]

1. I agree with your assessment of the quality of the hearing he has held. n/t

[karynnj]

2. CSPAN coverage

This hearing will be covered live on CSPAN 3 according to the schedule

Here is the link where it will be archived - http://www.c-spanarchives.org/library/index.php?main_page=product_video_info&tID=5&src=atom&atom=todays_events.xml&products_id=6566-1

[beachmom]

5. Actually, it is not being covered. An Eric Holder hearing is instead

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/C-SPAN3_rm.aspx

Which is actually in recess, so now we are watching the hubble telescope space walk.

It is live on the SFRC site:

http://foreign.senate.gov/Flashtest.html

[karynnj]

6. Sorry - it was on the schedule this morning - so it likely got bumped

I needed to go out so I missed it and will watch it later.

[karynnj]

3. Some background and INTERESTING news that in 5 to 6 weeks there will be a new Middle Eastern Plan

When Blair stepped down as Prime Minister in June, 2007, he was appointed as Middle East envoy hours later later - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6244358.stm There was concern, particularly by Hamas that he was too close to Israel and the US.

He said then,
"He told MPs: "The absolute priority is to try to give effect to what is now the consensus across the international community - that the only way of bringing stability and peace to the Middle East is a two-state solution."

In the British press, there have been mixed reviews of his accomplishments.
The Daily Mail, a leftish tabloid, pointed out that France took the lead in ending the hostilities in Gaza and questioned if Blair's costs were worth paying and pointing out that he has spent much time on business activities:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1140615/Tony-Blairs-job-Middle-East-peace-envoy-costs-taxpayers-500-000.html

Here, is a more positive article, where you can see that the British comments on the bombing of Gaza were stronger than American ones at the same time.

Tony Blair will fly to the Middle East next week amid mounting international efforts to broker a fresh ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Britain has condemned the "unacceptable" loss of life caused by the Israeli strikes on Gaza.

<snip>

The former prime minister, who is the envoy for the Quartet made up of the EU, Russia, United States and UN, spent yesterday contacting senior figures including the Israeli Defence Minister, Ehud Barak, as international pressure for a ceasefire mounted.

<snip>

Asked if the Israeli attacks could be justified, Mr Miliband said: "I think that any innocent loss of life is unacceptable and in this case there have been massive casualties, some of them civilians and some of them children. That is one reason we have called for a ceasefire.

"This is a very dangerous and dark moment, partly because of the lives lost and the humanitarian crisis that exists; partly because of the threat to the chance of the comprehensive peace that is so important for the Palestinians but also for Israel; and partly for the fuel for radicalism that can be argued by some to be the right response."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/blair-visits-middle-east-amid-pressure-to-broker-ceasefire-1216227.html

Interesting Israeli article from last week on what Tony Blair is doing. He and the Obama administration are working on a new Middle Eastern peace plan.

"We're about to get a new framework," Blair said Tuesday evening, adding that he did not know the details. "The reason I say people should be more hopeful, is that this is a framework that is being worked on at the highest level in the American administration, (and) in the rest of the international community."

The Obama administration has promised to work for the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. It has portrayed a two-state solution as the only way to solve the Mideast conflict and defined it as a U.S. national interest.

President Barack Obama is holding separate meetings at the White House this month with the Israeli, Palestinian and Egyptian leaders to hear their views.

Once those meetings are over, the Quartet is to convene in Washington to
discuss and present the new strategy, Blair said. The Quartet includes the U.S., the United Nations, the European Union and Russia. "I think that within the next five to six weeks, you will have a very clear picture of what the plan is," Blair said.

http://zionism-israel.com/israel_news/2009/05/obama-administration-quartet-are.html

Although the Bush administration ignored Middle East peace for 6 years, it is important to note that they committed to a two state solution and in the last 2 years did some good work culminating in Annapolis conference last fall. Here is a nice description from Haaretz, a Jewish newspaper which has had some of the best coverage of that area of the world.

Israel and the Palestinian Authority are to announce on Sunday their commitment to continuing talks on the core issues in 2009 after president-elect Barack Obama takes office. The parties have agreed to negotiate based on the principles determined at the Annapolis conference.

<snip>

The obligation of the parties to the process and a two-state solution; bilateral negotiations only between Israel and the PA, which will be secret; commitment to the first stage of the Road Map - a cessation of settlement construction and evacuation of illegal outposts by Israel, and a war on terror by the Palestinians; Israel and the PA will continue working together to bolster Palestinian institutions, with an emphasis on security and judicial bodies; and the international community will continue to support and assist the process diplomatically and economically.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1035129.html

The importance of this is that because Rice and the State Department reached these agreements on the two controversial issues - having 2 states and settlements - Obama should have an easier time stating that this is a bipartisan foreign policy - and it will make any right wing Jewish (a phrase I rarely write) attacks on it less successful.

Consider, the speeches by Biden and Kerry to AIPAC, where both unambiguously spoke for a two state solution and against settlements were not met by hostility at the AIPAC conference.

link to those speeches - http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2009/05/biden_kerry_off.html
link to CSPAN video - http://cspan.org/Watch/Media/2009/05/05/HP/A/18231/Vice+Pres+Biden+Sen+John+Kerry+DMA+Remarks+at+AIPAC+Annual+Conference.aspx

As was mentioned in the coverage of the AIPAC convention - AIPAC, which has been a powerful voice from the right on Israel, grudging agreed with the two state solution.

The largest US Jewish pr-peace group, Brit Tzedak V'Shalom praised the speeches. They have been advocating for a two state solution for years - here is a link. http://btvshalom.org/ga_messages/ga_20090507.html (They erred a little in that Kerry's speech was minutes before Biden's, not the day before.)

So, it looks like the UK and US have moved unambiguously to supporting a two state solution. Now, had Livni become President, it would be easy to say that the stars might finally be aligned. The question is whether Netanyahu will follow in the footsteps of Begin, also a Likkud member, who had the courage to work for peace.

[karynnj]

4. Posted in GD to let more people see and to see if any interest

(I will put it in the Israel/Palestine group as well.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=5652771&mesg_id=5652771

[beachmom]

7. I was able to watch part of the hearing. Here is my summary:

Tony Blair opened by explaining that in order for Israelis and Palestinians to go along with a 2 state solution, they needed certain things to happen on the ground:

1. Israelis need to know what that state of Palestine would be like within. Is it a stable government? Because if it is not, then Israel will have no security, and therefore, they won't go along with creating the second state.

2. Palestinians need to know that their state will be autonomous. That they have control over their own territory.

He said in order for there to be peace, the following must happen:

1. That there be a two state solution
2. That economic development happens for the Palestinians
3. That step by step restrictions of movement are lifted for the Palestinians
4. That the Palestinians get the foundation in place for an autonomous country: security forces, prisons, courts, and so on.

Of course, Gaza needs humanitarian help. You want to help the people and isolate the extremists, not the other way around.

In short, we are in a moment of opportunity, or really a moment of truth.

Kerry had joked at the beginning that he did not think the hearing would be as bad as Prime Minister's questions, so Tony Blair ended his opening statement by saying that because he had withstood Prime Minister's questions for 10 years, he will always be an optimist. Kerry quipped back, "or a masochist". Tony said, well maybe both.

[beachmom]

8. A few Kerry Q & A's (please note: I am paraphrasing, not exact verbatim):

Kerry: As I have traveled throughout the world in places like Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Sudan, and Iraq, I have noted that although the extremists are diverse they do have an organizing principle about the Israel/Palestinian conflict. What are your thoughts on this and how it affects the process?

Blair: The Israeli/Palestinian conflict did not cause the extremist movements of today. However, if part of defeating extremists is creating an alliance of moderate Muslims who all want to live in peace, then resolving the Israeli/Palestinian conflict will be a major part of achieving that larger goal.

Kerry: There has been a lot of talk that this is now a window of opportunity for a two state solution, and that soon it may close.

Blair: Well, that's too easy to say but ... certain things are alligned to make it more possible now than it was before. We have the Arab nations calling for peace now, we have a new American Administration that has made this a priority. If it doesn't happen now, then many will think that with all that is going for it and yet still failing, that there never will be a solution.

Kerry: What steps can be taken now to move the process forward?

Blair: Palestinians must get their forces going even moreso and work on developing a rule of law in their territory. Israel must make sure that their settlement activity does not put the two state solution in jeoopardy.

[beachmom]

9. A few more questions:

Corker: What about the new Israeli Prime Minister? He doesn't even want a two state solution, or has not spoken favorably for one.

Blair: Well, I have spoken with the prime minister, and I don't want to speak for him. Clearly we don't want to see actions taken that could jeopardize the process. But here is my optimist's view on the prime minister. I think he wants to be sure that Palestine is stable and Israel is secure before he signs onto the two state solution.

Corker then praises Blair and Sen. Mitchell as being the most qualified people to make this happen.

Feingold laments Bush doing nothing over the last 8 years. He praises Obama for saying that this is a top priority for him. Then he asks Tony Blair what steps should swiftly be taken now.

Blair: In 2000, once peace negotiations failed, and the Intifada began, it seemed like nothing would work. Israel got out of Gaza, and got a security problem in return. But there now is an opportunity now directly linked to people wanting it to succeed. Objective factors are:

1. Arab world wants peace
2. Obama Administration wants peace
3. Different Palestinian leadership


Idaho Senator Risch said that while he was in Israel all the talk was about Iran. How could they focus on the peace process, when they seem to be primarily focussed on Iran?

Blair: Israel should understand that the Palestinian question bears directly on the Iran issue.

[karynnj]

14. I just finished watching it and your summary is fantastic

It will be interesting to see what the next month brings on this.

One interesting comment - Kerry said he will be going to the economic conference in Jordan in a few days.

Here is a description, he must be going tomorrow or this weekend -

World Economic Forum on the Middle East
(15/05/2009 to 17/05/2009) Dead Sea, Jordan

World Economic Forum on the Middle East
Dead Sea, Jordan, 15-17 May 2009
Implications of the Global Economic Crisis for the Middle East
Home-grown Strategies for Success

2009 will bring unprecedented uncertainty to the Middle East. For this part of the world, the global economic predicament is coupled with highly volatile energy markets and large-scale erosion of asset values. The region’s economic landscape is being transformed. How will this transformation unfold throughout the year? The Middle East’s aspirations for prosperity will be challenged as it attempts to restore its own growth while navigating a complex geopolitical landscape.

[beachmom]

10. The hearing archive is up. Hopefully a few others can fill in the gaps

of the parts of the hearing I did not see. I wish transcripts of these hearings were available, but sadly they are not.

Hearing:

http://foreign.senate.gov/hearings/2009/hrg090514p.html

[beachmom]

11. Boston.com has Kerry's opening statement:

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2009/05/blair_to_testif.html

Here is how he ends it:

None of us can afford to continue on the present course. And nothing drove home for me the human toll of continued conflict more forcefully than a recent day I spent visiting the southern Israeli village of Sderot and then the Gazan town of Izbet Abed Rabo.

In Sderot, which has been the target of thousands of rockets over the last eight years, security officials told me that, from the moment they know a rocket has been fired from Gaza, people have just 15 seconds to find safety. Children in the second grade have spent literally every day of their lives never more than 15 seconds from danger.
In Izbet Abed Rabo in Gaza, I saw little Palestinian girls playing in rubble where, just months ago, buildings stood. I saw the ruins of the American School in Gaza. But I also saw a glimmer of hope in the faces of average Palestinians determined to carry on with their daily lives.

As I said in Gaza and I said it in Sderot, if terrorists in Quincy, Massachusetts, were launching rockets into Boston, we would have to put a stop to it, just as the Israelis were forced to respond. But on both sides, I was inspired by the determination of all who live with the daily reality of this conflict. If the kids on both sides can hope for themselves, if they can persevere for a better future, then we must help them get there. And we all know what it’s going to take: two states living side by side in peace and security.

The question, of course, is how we get there, and I am eager to hear Mr. Blair’s thoughts on the path forward.

[beachmom]

12. And the Hill has a report:

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/blair-two-state-solution-is-only-answer-2009-05-14.html

Tony Blair: Two-state solution is only answer
By J. Taylor Rushing
Posted: 05/14/09 04:46 PM

Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Thursday told a Senate panel that a “two-state solution” to the Israel-Palestinian conflict was the only chance for peace in the Mideast.

Testifying before the Foreign Relations Committee chaired by Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Blair said there is “no workable alternative” to a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel.


Since stepping down as prime minister in 2007, Blair has taken on the role of Mideast Quartet envoy, a diplomatic post representing efforts by the United Nations, United States, Russia and the European Union to negotiate peace in the Mideast.


MORE at link

[Luftmensch067]

13. C-SPAN 2 is airing this a couple of times

First at 9:59 PM EST and then at 6:45 AM EST tomorrow morning. It's about 2 hours and 3 minutes.