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Somewhat tongue-in-cheek reflections, written for the benefit of some Scottish friends' benefit....
My take:
1) It will not be a North American. No way, no how, just can't happen. The Cardinals may be stupid, but they're not that stupid. They understand that there is huge global resentment at US hegemony.
2) Though Arinze's name crops up all the time, I doubt very much he'll be elected. I also hope he's not elected. I've heard him preach, and he just wouldn't go over with the world outside of Nigeria. Also, he's been in Rome for years, and I think there is a strong anti-Vatican sentiment among the Cardinals, three-fourths of whom are active diocesan bishops. They're fed up having jumped-up bureaucrats in the Vatican tell them how to run their dioceses. Arinze will be seen by most of them as precisely that---a jumped-up bureaucrat. Oh, and he's black. The Cardinals are well aware that while the Church might be expanding in Africa, most Catholics are of Hispanic or other European origin. More to the point, white Catholics still provide the lion's share of the dosh for the Holy See, and it would be naive to think that there isn't some residual racial prejudice lingering among them, and naive to think that the Cardinals wouldn't be well aware of that.
3) It will not be an Asian. Asia doesn't carry a lot of weight in the universal Church historically compared to Latin America. I just can't see an Asian being elected pope before a Latin American.
4) So it basically comes down to Europe v Latin America.
5) Among the Europeans, Lustiger (Paris) is too old and sick, but he would have made a good choice had JP2 gone to his eternal reward sooner. Spain doesn't seem to have any heavyweights right now. Portugal, Holland, and Ireland are too marginal as countries in global terms, and Britain and Holland too marginal in Catholic terms. Eastern Europeans aren't needed any more, and it's Western Europe that has the greater pastoral urgency.
6) Among German speakers, Schoenburn is too identified with Eastern European concerns, and is also a Dominican, and is too aristocratic in background and manner. Walter Kasper is a very fine theologian, but perhaps is too intellectual and lacking in pastoral experience, though he's very personable and likeable. Lehmann would not be acceptable to the conservative wing. Ratzinger would be a better pope I think than a lot of people realize, but he cuts too divisive a figure and there'd be a firestorm of criticism if he were elected. There is nobody of similar stature to Lustiger among the French speaking European cardinals. The Belgian Daneels of course speaks French, and he is a heavyweight contender, but would probably not be acceptable enough to the conservative wing.
7) That leaves the Italians alone among European papabili. Because of the sentiment against the centralized Vatican bureaucracy, figures like Sodano, Re, Ruini, and Pompedda are probably out of the running. Antonelli (Firenze) and Scola (Venezia) are not unthinkable, especially Scola. Venice has often been a pre-papal appointment. Scola might get elected as a compromise candidate. But far and away the front-runner among Italian candidates is Tettamanzi. He is a serious contender. He looks a bit like John XXIII. At 71, he's the perfect age. I'd say that he's got the best chance among all the Italian candidates, and hence among all the European candidates.
8) Latin America goes into this Conclave with several serious candidates. I doubt it will be a Mexican, as that's not sufficiently far away from the US. It has to be further south. Bergoglio from Argentina has the right personal qualities, but maybe Argentina is too far south, plus he's a Jesuit, and I suspect that there's enough residual mistrust of Jesuits that this will rule him out. Claudio Hummes must be a very serious contender. Sao Paulo is a big diocese in an archetypal Catholic southern hemisphere city. Hummes has a European (German) background, which will earn him added kudos with Cardinals who might otherwise be hesitant about going to the 'Third World'. He is a Franciscan, so that would appeal to both to ageing flower-power types and environmentally-minded young people of today. He is well-placed to deal with the issue of Protestant evangelism in Latin America, and will be acceptable to 3rd world Cardinals, North and Latin American Cardinals, and because of his European heritage, European cardinals. In short, Hummes is a major, major candidate.
9) If that's all there was to be said, it would be a straight choice between Hummes and Tettamanzi. Both are acceptable to large segments of the College of Cardinals, both are straight JP2 on moral issues, both are strong on social justice, both appear to be friendly and personable enough. Neither would be as comfortable in the limelight as JP2 was, but that's not a big problem really as far as the Cardinals are concerned, given that many of them are still picking up the tab for JP2's globetrotting. So, Brazil v Italy....
10) But this is to reckon solely in terms of human considerations, and sometimes the Holy Spirit can throw a spanner in the works. The spanner might be Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga. The big thing against him is that he's a mere 62, which is often said to be too young, since it risks a very long papacy, which Cardinals don't always like. On the other hand, many Cardinals think that as JP2 ailed, the earlier dynamism of his papacy also stalled somewhat, and that perhaps there is a case to be made for the universal Pastor to be youthful and vigorous. Plus, anybody can get sick at any time, so it's not as if these things can really be calculated. Ok, the next thing against Maradiaga is that he's from a very small country, Honduras. Yeah, and Nazareth wasn't exactly a center of cosmopolitan sophistication either. Being from a small country may actually be a good thing, since it places less in the way of political pressures on the person chosen from there. Hummes, by contrast, would have the added complication of dealing with a rather major country, Brazil, with a currently leftist leader (Lula), which are factors that might not suit the diplomatic style of the Holy See. Maradiaga is very fluent in languages and has studied in Europe, and was president of the Latin American Bishops Conference for several years. He is definitely a high flyer. Plus, he would be incredibly media-friendly. I think this massive outpouring for JP2 must be telling the Cardinals that media is crucial these days. The next pope has to be able to handle the media well. Maradiaga looks as if he can do that better than Hummes or Tettamanzi.
Europeans and conservative types might not trust the Honduran, and perhaps he is seen as being a bit too ambitious. Apparently, when he was made a Cardinal, the faithful in Tegucigalpa celebrated by chanting, "John Paul III, John Paul III" (or "Juan Pablo Tres"). It appears he can work the crowds, and draw the adulation. Liberals would also welcome him for the most part, as he is very strong on social justice, and he is by training, experience and so forth already a cosmopolitan figure. As I say, some may fear that he's too ambitious, too young, too sure of himself, too good to be true.
Also, what has Honduras ever done in the World Cup? Surely it's always been the preserve of Brazil and Italy? But then, Conclaves are like football matches. Occasionally they produce a shock result.
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