Poll numbers in 1994, a bad year for Democrats, don't bode well for them in 2010

[alp227]

by Chris Cillizza, Washington Post

Is it deja vu all over again for Democrats?

Some neutral observers and senior strategists within the party have begun to believe that the national political environment is not only similar to what they saw in 1994 -- when Democrats lost control of the House and Senate -- but could in fact be worse by Election Day.

A quick look at the broadest atmospheric indicators designed to measure which way the national winds are blowing -- the generic ballot and presidential approval -- affirms the sense that the political environment looks every bit as gloomy for Democrats today as it did 16 years ago.

"President Obama's job number is likely to be as bad or worse than Clinton's when November rolls around, the Democratic generic-ballot advantage of plus 12 to plus 15 in 2006 and 2008 is now completely gone, and conservatives are energized like 1994," said Stu Rothenberg, an independent political analyst and editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a well-read campaign tip sheet.

--snip--

In an August 1994 Washington Post-ABC News poll, 49 percent of respondents said they would vote for the Democrat while 42 percent said they would back the Republican. Last month, 47 percent said they would support the Republican while 46 percent chose the Democrat.

The results were strikingly similar in several other national surveys. In an August 1994 Gallup poll, 46 percent said they would vote for the Democrat and an equal 46 percent said they would support the Republican. The most recent Gallup data give Republicans an edge of 50 percent to 43 percent over Democrats. A CNN/Opinion Research poll shows that in August 1994, Republicans had a generic-ballot lead of 46 percent to 44 percent, a margin similar to the numbers in CNN data, 48 percent to 45 percent, this month.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/22/AR2010082202859.html

[Dawgs]

1. "And, in a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, the GOP had its lowest favorability ratings ever."

The Republicans actually had a plan in 1994. They were also out of power for a really long time. Many Americans haven't forgot what it was like in 2006 and earlier.

[Beetwasher]

2. And They're Nominating Rand Paul's And Sharon Angle's

n/t

[AndyA]

3. I think Chris Cillizza has missed the mark on this one.

Back in 1994, we hadn't had the Republicans default on their 1994 promises. Today, they have.

We didn't know about Newt Gingrich and his hypocrisy. We hadn't had G.W. Bush shoved down our throats. The economy hadn't almost fallen into a black hole. There was no Sarah Palin, no Michelle Bachmann, and no Glenn Beck.

Tea Baggers were...well...not out parading around in the streets, shall we say. ;)

I hope Americans are smart enough to see that the Republicans are preventing the Democrats from fixing the problems the Republicans brought us.

[Radical Activist]

4. The pollsters were surprised when Democrats took back then House.

They'll be surprised again when the Senate Democratic majority increases.

[Bitwit1234]

5. I don't understand why the republicans think they can gain

so many seats. They have 18 seats in the senate to defend. They actually only have 41 all together. Do you think for one minute they are so damn good they will retain ALL 18 plus pick up at least 10 more. No way.

Ten how about the House. So they need to retain over 200 they now have plus pick up 39 more. Boy they sure think they are magic don't they. No wonder they are trying to manufacture crap, they know they get all all those votes they are trying to physc people out.

[Dawson Leery]

6. The pundits also said the Democrats would not win the

house in 2006 because the party could not appeal to voters in swing districts.

[Glassunion]

7. Gun control was a huge factor in the 94 election cycle.

Bill Clinton said it himself. The Assault Weapons Ban cost a lot of seats that year.

Currently none of us Dems are touching gun control with a 10 foot pole and it will hardly play any part in the coming election. In fact more pro-gun laws have gone into effect under our current leadership than had occured during all of GWB's terms.

[Dawson Leery]

8. Which is why Obama and Pelosi have ignored the issue.

[Glassunion]

9. As well they should. nt