Who is (has been) playing the Solar run up ?

[MazeRat7]

I got heavy into various solar companies last year when oil prices were the big stink. What I am seeing is that these stocks continue to appreciate in spite of crude/NG performance. For the most part these stocks have 0 to few analysts yet they continue to appreciate. So.. I guess my question is why ? Institutional ownership is, at best, below average for many of these plays...so who is doing the buying ? Individual investors ? Insiders ?

Hence the point of my OP.

Who here has a position in one or more publicly traded solar companies ?

Me? I've got 4 today.. that will more than likely change by the time you read this *grin.

MZr7

[thoughtanarchist]

1. Can you list your 4 winners?

I'm sure I'm not the only one who would like to get in on these...

This topic came up before and I started researching the companies discussed and then kinda got sidetracked before buying anything...


Also why are you getting out now?

[midnight armadillo]

2. I was considering this

The one I am eyeballing is Evergreen Solar (ESLR) which is a local manufacturer with a decent technology. I too am curious about other companies.

I'm also planning on buying into the Winslow Green Growth fund that does wind/solar/etc investing later this year - WGGFX.

[thoughtanarchist]

3. ESLR got a mention in the Fool...

The article goes on to give the following advice that I plan to take...

<snip>
"If you're also interested in finding the next great solar stock, I suggest you first bookmark solarbuzz.com. No place on the Web provides a better overview of market demand, per-kilowatt-hour pricing, and global developments. Once you've done that, move on to the list of publicly traded solar firms at a website called sustainablebusiness.com. That will at least get you started."
<snip>

I suck at analysis but maybe if I get started someone with a bit more experience will step in to help out:

ESLR

Avg Vol (3m): 3,006,600
Market Cap: 971.61M

Looks like the shares have liquidity and the market cap is big enough to get the attention of institutional investers which means your share price is at the mercy of fickle fund managers.

% Held by Insiders4: 16.58%
% Held by Institutions4: 47.60%
Float: 50.64M

Looks like the officers have a stake to make the company a success, but fully 1/2 of the shares are held by institutions...

Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 20.10%

that is impressive, but...

Gross Profit (ttm): -6.18M

...they are operating at a loss... apparently it's the cost of growth. But I also thought I saw that they are sitting on more cash than their total debt.

The risks section of their latest quartly is pretty long...
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/12/123/123321/items/157307/ESLRAR2004.pdf

...and their share price has already had a good run.

It's currently in decline coming off it's 52 week (all time) high.
Since their earnings are negative, how do we ascertain the value of the stock?
Is it too pricey? Are there any indicators that their odds are better than average to become profitable? How badly does this analysis suck?

...help?...

:dunce: