Why Repubs often appear to close in Late Polls

[Sensitivity]

It is the methodology Stupid!

Most polling protocols are able to apply more concrete definitions of
LIKELY voter in the few days approaching an election.

Unfortunately for DEMS, republicans tend to meet the more objective
criteria of likelihood (usually specific steps taken or plans made
to get to polling place etc.) than Democrats and in fact tend to actually go and vote more reliably than DEMS.

Of course, DEMS could always surprise those polsters by actually
getting off their duffs (what they said they were going to do
2 weeks ago but still have not made any specific arrangements for)
and vote.

[aquart]

1. This is a load of crap. But thank you for your concern.

[Sensitivity]

2. Glad that you are so informed

[BlooInBloo]

3. I think you may have left off the true last word of your sentence :)

[elocs]

9. Ah, yes. Another well thought out and intelligent response.

We could all save a lot of time by simply responding to posts we don't like as "a load of crap".
It is so pithy and eloquent.

[BlooInBloo]

4. Damn CT...

Your home is over here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2588023


You're welcome. :)

[SeattleGirl]

5. LOL!

:rofl:

[KharmaTrain]

6. No One Watches A Blow-Out...

These networks, pollsters, newpapers and others have invested lots of money to draw big audiences to their election coverage and to keep it hot and "fresh"...hoping to cash in big with large ratings and revenues on Election Night. They're promising their advertisers certain ratings and love when things get hot and divisive as it only increases those ratings.

In '94 the exact oppposite scenario occured. There were plenty of polls showing Repugnicans leading in Congressional races...many "too close to call". The "pundits" used models that showed more Democratic voters would show at the polls and did their final "adjustments" or "weighting" based on those numbers...and thus the "surprise" on election night. I see a similar thing building here.

Of course the numbers are tightening...Repugnicans have been bombarded the past two weeks with fear, phone calls, mailers and who knows what else to get to the polls. They're being brow-beaten with "they raise your taxes" and "take your guns" and "force your children to eat abortion pills" and so on...pressing whatever button they can to get their people to the polls. They're also betting Democrats either take the election for granted or get spooked and stay home or don't GOTV. From what I've seen in our local area...unlike in past years where the local GOOP organizations flooded the precincts with operatives in the final days, the Democrats are matching them this year.

[Sensitivity]

19. So let's not play the game. GET OUT THE VOTE, BUT WHATEVER MEAN

[orleans]

7. if that is the case, maybe dems are less A. retentive than the pukes.

that's why we all haven't planned our rides for tuesday....

(of course, i have, but maybe not everyone has...)

[AJ9000]

8. Here's part of the reason why:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-g-brant/skewed-abc-news-poll-give_b_33305.html

[Sensitivity]

10. It is a judgement call ABC poll ended up biased toward Repubs

in the poll likely because of the tightening LIKELY VOTER CRITERIA
for inclusion.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. A Few Things...

It's hard to know in advance the percentage of Reps, Dems, and Indys who will show up at the polls...

There's always a discrepancy between likely and registered voters...

As education and income increase your likelihood to vote increase...Since Republicans tend to be more educated and more affluent they are more likely to vote than their Democratic counterparts.

Polling is part art and part science. A lot of assumptions are built into it. To get it right you have to make the right assumptions..

That's pretty straight forward political and social science.

[Yupster]

15. In a mid-term where only 35 %

of the voters will vote, I don't know how you can have a very accurate poll. How do you know which 35 % will show up?

The polls usually come out fairly close though.

[Sensitivity]

16. The lower the turnout expected the harder to judge the sample and assignment

of Likelihood to vote.

[ThomWV]

12. Make Plans? Hell, Its No Harder Than Running Out For A Pizza

I would suggest that for the vast majority of Americans voting is no more difficult or time consuming that picking up a pizza. In fact it takes longer to cook a pizza than most of us will wait to cast our ballot and there will be fewer choices to make of candidates on the ballot than toppings at a good pizza joint.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Some People Must Find It Difficult

I'm not sure but I think only 35% to 40% of registered voters vote in mid terms...

[Sensitivity]

14. Nastiest tactic is Rep call telling DEMS why they DON'T NEED TO VOTE

while pretending to be some public of Democratic party agency.

[Junkdrawer]

17. If you're tweaking a rig, you need to see the actual results...

If you pre-rig an election too much, you risk getting caught with negative or other unbelievable results.

If you tweak, say with Diebold's GEMS, the election results, you must wait for the real results to come in and then change the results.

So you hold back the large key precincts until last and then adjust as necessary.

[Sensitivity]

18. Maybe some Polsters are accounting for the Rigging Factor, Some are not

:rofl:

[Junkdrawer]

20. Actually, not as funny as you seem to think...

If pollsters adjust their results on the basis of past elections and if said past elections were rigged....

[mrreowwr_kittty]

21. A lot of likely Dem voters can't take the whole day off

They are in low wage service jobs and can't afford to lose the pay or the boss won't let them go. In 2004 voters in poor districts often left the long lines in frustration without voting. You never saw this happen in the lily white suburbs. This is a big problem. We need an election day holiday and a concerted effort to help people vote absentee or early.