Reply #11: I Don't Remember [View All]

[louis c]

an Incumbent running in that race, do you.

Races with sitting incumbents running for reelction have a certain trend.

Open seats are far more volitile.

No Incumbent has won reelction if his approval rating was below 50% at ant time during the election year, since 1948.

No Incumbent President has won reelction since 1948 if his challanger lead in any major national poll at any time during the election year.

Ford, Carter, and Bush Sr. have this pattern and lost.

Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton had the opposite pattern and won.

Any other comparison to an open seat is invalid.