Reply #19: Well, I don't have a polysci B.A., but do have campaign experience... [View All]

[wyldwolf]

First, there's a definite trend with his ability to bring new people into the process. New people at MeetUps, thousands of new people giving for their first times to a campaign, etc. If this pattern holds, turnout on our side could rise significantly. Right now, it looks like the country is back on its way to 50-50 Red-Blue. If even a measly 3% more show-up to the polls to vote for Dean, that equates to at least 3 million more voters going into our column. Pretty statistically significant when we're in an otherwise 50-50 situation, (or even 52-48).

Look at this practically. Despite Deans's incredible grassroots efforts, he hasn't pulled away from the pack. He is tied with Gephardt in NH and losing the South. In national polls, he either is tied or is second as the democratic choice whereas several months ago he was on top consitantly.

This doesn't sound like a growing campaign but rather one that has leveled out in light of growing competition. It worked like a charm for while but the demographics in the primary states (southerners, men, low income families, african americans) have leveled the field.

As for the rest of your post, relying on one poll (Zogby) gives a skewed impression.

Dean's record as Governor was centrist - but his supporters have painted him as a far left anti-war liberal. This isn't the label he needs. Many independent and moderate voters feel the same way about the far left as they do the far right. He will have to shed that to contend.

Majorities of likely Democratic voters in three states with early primaries or caucuses say they prefer a presidential nominee who supported military action against Iraq but criticized President Bush for failing to assemble international support over a candidate who opposed military action from the beginning, according to new polls conducted by the liberal Democracy Corps.

The polls, taken in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, also show a Democratic electorate sharply divided over Bush's request for $87 billion to fund military and reconstruction efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan over the next year. Congress is preparing to vote on the president's request this week.

The findings in the new polls suggest that the divisions over Iraq within the party are less clear-cut than some strategists and candidates believe, or that support for U.S. action to remove former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein from power is a serious handicap in the battle for the Democratic nomination.

Democrats surveyed in the three states also listed foreign policy and national security experience as the most important attribute they are looking for in selecting a nominee. They rated that characteristic over such other choices as experience in Congress, being a decorated combat veteran, being a Washington outsider or having a blue-collar background.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38335-2003Oct16.html