Reply #40: Consider this: [View All]

[tedoll78]

If Clark takes-out Edwards, Clark has a chance to solidify the South behind him. That's over 1200 delegates - more than half of the 2170 needed for the nomination.

If he can pull-off California, he gets a chunk of that state's 440 delegates. And Zogby indicates that he's doing really, really well in the Rocky Mountain states, which is another chunk of delegates waiting for him if things continue in this manner.

Clark has a path to the nomination; he just needs to make it happen. He's doing really, really well nationally. The meme that he's fading is being conflicted with new poll numbers this week showing that his star is indeed on the rise. Pretty good for a guy who's been putting his name out for the past three months.

It'd be a bit better for Gep to win Iowa, as it would probably slightly (slightly) slow Dean's momentum. Gep would drop-out anyway; he'll be broke.

Dean, barring a catastrophe, will win New Hampshire. Kerry is out then.

Clark wins South Carolina, knocking-out Edwards, and solidifying his chances at a southern sweep. It's also very possible that by winning South Carolina, he could be the first candidate to beat Dean in a primary; this would put him with a bit more of the media spotlight. Especially with a good 4th quarter, I can see the media shaping this into a Dean-versus-Clark drama. And I'd be willing to bet that Dean will have made more comments angering the dropped-out candidates than Clark will have, which could go a long way in the endorsement aspect of this race.

Of course, I'd argue that Clark should pick Dean as his running mate if the fight gets too divisive. Dean has great legislative skills (as exhibited in his years as VT's governor), brings a great fiery movement to the ticket, and it could be argued that Dean brings the ticket to the center. Party unity is a great asset in the upcoming race. Dean and Clark on the same ticket accomplishes this, and has great appeal to the middle-of-the-road voters.

Should be interesting to watch..