Reply #10: If only "cares about this" added credibility. [View All]

[FBaggins]

That would help in SO many things.

Unfortunately, it doesn't.

I'd be happy to see your analysis.

We really don't have CLOSE to enough information to even make an informed guess. But we know enough to debunk this theory. He's using a terrible double standard. Assume as fact a low (but perhaps accurate) estimate for Chernobyl and then make up a series of imaginary occurrences for Fukushima. Incredibly high estimates that 50% (for instance) of the Cesium in a fuel rod will work it's way to the surface and be released if a given temperature is reached for a period of time. Then he makes guesses at how much would be released to the atmosphere. He takes that percentage and multiplies it by the entire mass of Cesium in all seven cores/pools.

All this without a real analysis of what the mechanism for release would be. Take one of the cores... how would it all get out? Certainly large amount would in the water that's leaking out... but almost all of that is flowing into the ocean where it would have comparatively little impact. That's probably the case for the pools as well.

But before we dance over every step involved in the process he imagines... just think about the big picture. Does this hypothetical make sense? Can we find any way to validate the premise that high percentages of the total mass will work their way out of the fuel if it reaches a given temperature for a certain period of time?

Darn... if only we had an example of another reactor core that spent days and days at a higher temperature so that we could compare.

Oh! I know. What if there was another reactor that ran at that much higher temperature for days and days AND had fuel that was open to the air AND had an ongoing fire that provided a mechanism to transport that Cesium out of the core and into the air. THEN we could see whether the theory made sense just from a big picture perspective.

If only we could find such a case, eh? This theory would be so much easier to validate. Sigh. :)