Reply #126: Bullshit. Just read this and you will see why the poll is bullshit. [View All]

[bjobotts]

From the carpetbagger report:

It looks like ‘blue’ skies ahead
Posted November 26th, 2007 at 4:15 pm

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In light of Congress’ low approval ratings, some have suggested that the wave that washed Republicans out of the congressional majority 12 months ago has already subsided, and both chambers will once again be up for grabs 12 months from now.

CQ’s Bob Benenson and Jonathan Allen took a very thorough look at the landscape and have come to the opposite conclusion.

very traditional indicator of election forecasting — from public opinion polls and issue resonance to candidate recruitment and the “over/under” balance of seats in play — suggests that congressional Democrats have just as much going for them in 2008 as they had in 2006, if not more. They now have the power of incumbency to give them added advantages in raising money, attracting top-tier candidates, controlling the legislative agenda and capturing the political zeitgeist.

All this leads Democrats to profess clear confidence that they’ll retain majority control next fall. And not only that, but they may now harbor realistic visions of emerging with 55 to 58 seats in the Senate (pushing them within arm-twisting distance of the 60 votes needed to bust a filibuster) as well more than 240 seats in the House, a cushion that neither party has enjoyed since the end of the last Democratic era in the House, in 1994. <…>

By early March at the latest, Democrats are likely to have a presumed presidential nominee who will enjoy consensus front-runner status going into the general election campaign. That will give them a titular leader for the first time in seven years and the opportunity to unite behind a single party message throughout the remainder of the year.

Republicans, meanwhile, appear destined for a yearlong internecine battle for the heart and soul of the party. Even if they manage to rally behind a single presidential candidate next spring, it is not at all clear that any of the leading candidates for the nomination can count on the loyal and enthusiastic support of evangelical Christians and other social conservatives who have formed the bedrock of the GOP “base” for more than a quarter-century.

A year, obviously, is a long time, especially in politics. But CQ’s analysis is heartening and persuasive. Put it this way, do you think Republicans would want to switch positions with the Dems right now?

Moreover, practically every measurable standard leans in the Dems’ direction — the public supports their agenda, voters trust them on the issues, the party has more money in the bank, the GOP has more open seats and vulnerable incumbents to defend, etc.

But there’s one intangible that seems to help Dems more than anything else.

It isn’t always necessary for a party to enjoy robust popularity among voters to win majorities in Congress. Sometimes, it’s good enough just to not be the other guy.

Even though the public’s “honeymoon” with the congressional Democratic majorities was brief, there is scant evidence that voters are anxious to rush back to the party they so recently dumped. <…>

he biggest factor working in the Democrats’ favor continues to be that they are not the Republicans. (emphasis added)

Obviously, that doesn’t mean Dems can coast and expect to be rewarded. They still have a policy agenda, and voters still expect progress.

But it does mean that the smart money is on the Democratic majority getting bigger next year.

Consider this your morale boost for the day."

From me: Electability is not an isuue in this presidential election. It's just how they sell campaign ads for money to media. After the horrors of Bush and the present GOP candidates being such a joke electability is not an issue . Whoever wins the democratic primary will be the next president. All of the dem candidates are electable...NONE of the GOP candidates are electable. Get it through your heads and quit letting it influence your thoughts. ELECTABILITY IS NOT AN ISSUE IN THIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE...PERIOD.