I calculated the deviations based on the two-party vote.
Gore + Bush = 100%.
For Gore the average vote tally deviation from the exit polls
was just -0.17%. Pretty damn accurate.
GORE'S UNWEIGHTED 51-STATE AVERAGE:
EXIT POLLS: 47.50%
ACTUAL VOTE: 47.33%
ASSUMING THESE POLL NUMBERS WERE NOT ADJUSTED LIKE THEY WERE
IN THIS ELECTION TO MATCH THE ACTUAL "VOTES", THIS
PUTS THE LIE TO ALL THOSE SO-CALLED EXPERTS WHO CLAIM THAT
EXIT POLLS ARE NOT ACCURATE.
SO MUCH FOR THAT MYTH.
THIRTY-SEVEN STATES FELL WITHIN 1%.
ONLY SIX EXCEEDED 3%, SPLIT EVENLY: 3 FOR GORE AND 3 FOR BUSH
GORE WON THE POPULAR VOTE BY OVER 540,000 VOTES.
THE EXIT POLLS, EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA, WERE APPARENTLY RIGHT ON
THE MONEY.
WHAT HAPPENED THIS TIME?
2000 Exit Poll Data from MSNBC.com
http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polllaunch.asp
Avg Gore deviation: -0.17%
Favored Bush: 22
Favored Gore: 29
States Dev. Within
37 1%
5 2%
3 3%
6 over 3%
2-party
Exit Poll Exit% Exit% Gore Gore Exceed
All Gore Bush Gore Bush Exit Vote Diff 3%MoE Favor
AL Men 48% 37% 63% 43.8% 56.2% 43.8% 42.9% -0.90% Bush
Women 52% 50% 50%
AK Men 54% 35% 65% 41.9% 58.1% 41.9% 32.2% -9.72% Yes Bush
Women 46% 50% 50%
AZ Men 49% 37% 63% 43.1% 56.9% 43.1% 46.9% 3.76% Yes Gore
Women 51% 49% 51%
AR Men 47% 46% 54% 52.4% 47.6% 52.4% 47.4% -4.94% Yes Bush
Women 53% 58% 42%
CA Men 42% 53% 47% 57.6% 41.2% 58.3% 55.8% -2.53% Bush
Women 58% 61% 37%
CO Men 49% 41% 60% 46.6% 53.9% 46.4% 45.2% -1.22% Bush
Women 51% 52% 48%
CT Men 47% 56% 44% 65.0% 35.0% 65.0% 59.6% -5.44% Yes Bush
Women 53% 73% 27%
DE Men 51% 44% 56% 49.4% 50.6% 49.4% 56.7% 7.31% Yes Gore
Women 49% 55% 45%
GA Men 52% 38% 62% 46.6% 53.4% 46.6% 43.9% -2.76% Bush
Women 48% 56% 44%
IA Men 45% 46% 54% 53.2% 46.9% 53.2% 50.5% -2.63% Bush
Women 55% 59% 41%
KS Men 49% 24% 76% 33.2% 66.8% 33.2% 38.9% 5.77% Yes Gore
Women 51% 42% 58%
FL Male 46% 42% 54% 47.9% 49.1% 49.4% 50.0% 0.62% Gore
Female 54% 53% 45%
HI Male 49% 49% 42% 55.6% 36.9% 60.1% 60.2% 0.09% Gore
Female 51% 62% 32%
ID Male 51% 21% 76% 28.4% 69.1% 29.1% 29.5% 0.39% Gore
Female 49% 36% 62%
IL Male 47% 51% 46% 54.2% 42.8% 55.9% 56.1% 0.27% Gore
Female 53% 57% 40%
IN Male 47% 35% 64% 40.8% 57.6% 41.5% 41.8% 0.37% Gore
Female 53% 46% 52%
IA Male 50% 44% 52% 49.0% 48.0% 50.5% 50.5% 0.00% Gore
Female 50% 54% 44%
KY Male 49% 37% 61% 41.1% 56.4% 42.1% 41.8% -0.30% Bush
Female 51% 45% 52%
LA Male 45% 39% 56% 44.5% 52.7% 45.8% 45.9% 0.14% Gore
Female 55% 49% 50%
ME Male 48% 42% 50% 48.8% 44.3% 52.4% 52.7% 0.28% Gore
Female 52% 55% 39%
MD Male 46% 47% 50% 56.7% 39.7% 58.8% 58.3% -0.47% Bush
Female 54% 65% 31%
MA Male 47% 52% 37% 60.0% 32.2% 65.0% 64.5% -0.52% Bush
Female 53% 67% 28%
MI Male 49% 46% 51% 51.1% 46.4% 52.4% 52.6% 0.17% Gore
Female 51% 56% 42%
MN Male 46% 43% 50% 47.9% 45.1% 51.5% 51.1% -0.40% Bush
Female 54% 52% 41%
MS Male 43% 32% 67% 41.1% 57.9% 41.5% 41.4% -0.12% Bush
Female 57% 48% 51%
MO Male 47% 43% 54% 47.2% 50.3% 48.4% 48.5% 0.02% Gore
Female 53% 51% 47%
MT Male 46% 28% 64% 32.9% 58.6% 35.9% 36.3% 0.34% Gore
Female 54% 37% 54%
NE Male 47% 30% 64% 32.7% 62.4% 34.3% 34.7% 0.39% Gore
Female 53% 35% 61%
NV Male 51% 41% 53% 45.4% 49.6% 47.8% 47.9% 0.11% Gore
Female 49% 50% 46%
NH Male 51% 40% 53% 46.4% 48.6% 48.8% 49.5% 0.64% Gore
Female 49% 53% 44%
NJ Male 47% 49% 47% 55.9% 40.6% 57.9% 58.3% 0.43% Gore
Female 53% 62% 35%
NM Male 48% 44% 51% 49.2% 46.3% 51.5% 50.0% -1.51% Bush
Female 52% 54% 42%
NY Male 46% 53% 41% 59.5% 35.6% 62.6% 63.2% 0.60% Gore
Female 54% 65% 31%
NC Male 47% 38% 60% 42.8% 55.8% 43.4% 43.4% 0.03% Gore
Female 53% 47% 52%
ND Male 51% 31% 59% 32.5% 61.0% 34.8% 35.1% 0.35% Gore
Female 49% 34% 63%
OH Male 46% 39% 57% 46.6% 50.5% 48.0% 47.9% -0.04% Bush
Female 54% 53% 45%
OK Male 45% 36% 62% 38.2% 59.8% 39.0% 38.8% -0.20% Bush
Female 55% 40% 58%
OR Male 48% 40% 54% 46.8% 47.8% 49.5% 50.0% 0.53% Gore
Female 52% 53% 42%
PA Male 48% 43% 54% 50.8% 46.7% 52.1% 52.6% 0.49% Gore
Female 52% 58% 40%
RI Male 50% 54% 37% 60.5% 32.5% 65.1% 65.6% 0.54% Gore
Female 50% 67% 28%
SC Male 45% 35% 60% 40.5% 56.2% 41.9% 41.8% -0.07% Bush
Female 55% 45% 53%
SD Male 51% 30% 67% 36.4% 61.1% 37.3% 38.8% 1.47% Gore
Female 49% 43% 55%
TN Male 47% 42% 56% 46.2% 51.2% 47.4% 48.0% 0.52% Gore
Female 53% 50% 47%
TX Male 49% 30% 65% 37.7% 58.9% 39.0% 39.2% 0.17% Gore
Female 51% 45% 53%
UT Male 48% 18% 73% 26.3% 66.8% 28.3% 28.0% -0.32% Bush
Female 52% 34% 61%
VT Male 47% 45% 46% 50.8% 40.7% 55.5% 55.4% -0.10% Bush
Female 53% 56% 36%
VA Male 46% 37% 58% 44.6% 52.1% 46.1% 45.8% -0.29% Bush
Female 54% 51% 47%
WA Male 49% 43% 48% 49.1% 43.4% 53.1% 52.6% -0.45% Bush
Female 51% 55% 39%
WV Male 46% 42% 57% 46.3% 51.6% 47.3% 46.9% -0.37% Bush
Female 54% 50% 47%
WI Male 48% 40% 54% 47.8% 48.3% 49.8% 50.0% 0.25% Gore
Female 52% 55% 43%
WY Male 47% 21% 76% 27.9% 69.1% 28.8% 29.2% 0.41% Gore
Female 53% 34% 63%
Avg 45.9% 50.8% 47.5% 47.3% -0.17% 6
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