Reply #4: This is key [View All]

[ProSense]

from the OP:

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In our first national poll pitting the two Obama leads Perry 49-43. That six point advantage is pretty comparable to Obama's margin of victory over John McCain. Perry has certainly come on strong with Republicans but independents view him negatively already by an almost 2:1 margin, 29/55, and Democrats pretty universally give him bad ratings at a 10/71 spread. As a result Obama leads Perry thanks in large part to a 24 point advantage with independents at 56-32.

It's a different story for Obama when it comes to the match up against Romney. There he can only achieve a tie at 45%, and because there are a lot more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all likelihood Romney would come out ahead if voters had to go to the polls and really make a decision today. Romney does better than Perry because he holds Obama to only a 9 point advantage with independents, 48-39, and because he loses only 5% of the Republican vote to Obama where Perry loses 10%.

None of the rest of the Republican hopefuls even fare as well as Perry. Obama leads Michele Bachmann by 8 points at 50-42, Herman Cain by 10 points at 49-39, and Sarah Palin by 13 points at 53-40. This poll is more confirmation of what's become a broad trend in our polling- against Romney Obama faces a toss up and against anyone else he's in decent shape for reelection.

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Also, via Daily Kos

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While this week's one-point downtick in President Obama's job approvals is tiny compared to http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/16/1007502/-Daily-Kos-SEIU-State-of-the-Nation-Poll:-An-ugly-drop-to-a-record-low?detail=hide">last week's seven-point drop, it's hardly what his reelection team wants to see. This record low in PPP's polling is also paired with a new record low in Gallup's daily tracker, which puts Obama at an even worse 38-54. Interestingly, though, the president's favorables moved back up a net of five points since our last poll, creating a pretty wide 11-point spread between those who like Obama personally but dislike his policies.

The thing is, of course, that everyone we poll regularly has terrible numbers. In fact, as you can see, Obama's are actually the least bad of them all! I think we may be headed toward a very weird election where both parties are the targets of a lot of ire. Whenever a wave election approaches, a handful of desperate naysayers in the doomed party always tries to claim that it's not an anti-Dem or anti-GOP year, but rather an anti-incumbent year. It's never really been true, but maybe we'll finally see that happen in 2012.

Only 15 months until the election!!