Old Crank
Old Crank's JournalWill Republicans vote Democratic in the fall?
Here is an article that states we shouldn't expect much change from Republican voters who disapprove o Trump.
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07-13-lab-gop-anchors-generic-ballot
You have to scroll past the introduction to get tothe real meat of the article.
Quote.
Laurance wanted me to take the Trump disapprovers who still aren’t voting Democratic and carry at least one Republican “anchor” — a 2024 Trump ballot, Republican party ID or lean, or conservative self-ID — and split them up by which anchors they carry. How does each combination vote on the generic ballot? In other words, don’t just count the anchors — ask which ones actually hold.
I recommend you read the piece linked above to get a better idea of how this works, but basically what we’re doing is looking at the subset of people in our poll who say they disapprove of Trump but aren’t voting Democrat and trying to figure out why — and, importantly, how many of those voters Democrats might actually win.
If you sort voters by Trump approval and generic-ballot vote and then count the GOP anchors in each cell, we find that among disapprovers who are undecided, 40% carry one or more GOP anchors. Among disapprovers who say they’ll vote GOP, 90% have Republican anchors. That’s the group I called “closet Republicans” in my May piece. There are a lot of disapproves who look more like Trump supporters/Republicans than Democratic voters, all else being equal.
Here are the numbers: Voters carrying all three anchors (a Trump ‘24 ballot, Republican in party affiliation, and conservative self-ID) are still voting Republican 76% to 16, so disapproving of Trump barely dents them. Voters who pulled the lever for Trump in ‘24 and call themselves Republicans but not conservatives stay Republican too, at 63% to 26.
End of copy
The basic upshot is that we can't expect a lot of movement from Republican voters to the Democratic side for the midterms. Granted it won't take much to swing quite a few races but it can't be counted on. The best bet is to concentrate more on independents with few 'anchors'
Funny meme I couldn't copy or link to.
I'm sure you all remember the photo that had a good looking woman walking towards the camera. Behind her is a couple and the man is looking back at her and the woman with him is visibly upset.
The picture was changed.
Lindsay Graham is walking to the camera. The other woman is now Mitch McConnell while Death is with him but looking back at Lindsay.
A little something I saw
MAGA: Aren't you proud to be an American?
Me; I consider pride a sin.
Traffic laws in NYC (may be a bit of a strtch for this forum)
The previous mayor of NYC put in a law change to make ebike and bike traffic infractions criminal offenses. Mamdani reversed that and now a group is sueing to reinstated the proceedure. Basically the change makes traffic tickets criminal offences and the person commiting them has to show up in court. This covers pretty much all moving violations.
"They’re pedestrians and conventional cyclists who say that they want a return to a policy that was introduced by Mayor Eric Adams last year. It made traffic violations by e-bikes and bikes criminal offenses. In other words, cyclists had to appear in court if they received a citation. "
So drivers who blow traffic lights and stop signs get a ticket and pay by mail, but a cyclist has to show up in court.
https://pix11.com/news/local-news/new-lawsuit-seeks-to-make-e-bike-traffic-violations-criminal-again-in-nyc/
I think the judge should reinstate the criminal charge and under the equal protection claus, extend it to all motorized vehicles. After all according to one of the law supporters>
“If people know they’re going to be held accountable,” said Peace, “they’re going to change their behavior.”
And cars and trucks are by far the most dangerous vehicles on the NYC roads.
Eating too much lately
Have to clear food out of thr fridge and freezer since it quit working.
Currently it is a big cooler packed with ice.
Since it is a warranty repair it is taking extra time to get a technician over.
First world problems.
Tomorrow I make a pumpkin pie to save the frozen pumpkin puree.
Chili con carne
First time I've made this with dried peppers instead of ground spices. Quite a difference. A friend of my daughter brought some over from CA.
I used about a pint of chicken stock instead of beef stock. Our fridge is on the frizt so I pulled it out of the freezer.
28 minutes left, Senegal 2 Belgium 0
Senegal has looked to be the dominant team in this match until just after their second goal. Belgium finally woke up. But
Watched the England v Congo match
The cameras had a shot of the head cheese booth.
Reminded me of pictures of the Politbureau.
A bunch of stone faces.
The Haitian decision
From another source.
The fact that Stephen Miller is saying that the US is closed to asylum seekers from Haiti but open to those from white South Africans tells you all you need to know.
World cup, here der Weltmeister,
That would be world master.
Marketing adn sponsorships don't take a break. I can get German flag coloured pasta. Tonite we had official stadium wurst. Not coloured like the flag. Found these urinals at the main Lowenbrau restaurant the other day. Yes that is the Germany flag, Schwartz, rot, und gold. And then today there was this iceberg lettuce in the store.
Perhaps others can share promo stuff for the games that strike you as odd or funny.
Profile Information
Name: RalphGender: Male
Current location: München, DE
Member since: Tue Nov 14, 2017, 07:17 AM
Number of posts: 7,497