President Donald Trump’s dogged determination to annex the icy island of Greenland relies on the idea that doing so would give the U.S. an untapped treasure trove of natural resources and strategic military positioning. But the harsh environment, enormous financial investments, and massive infrastructure and workforce buildout required to create an economic engine could cost at least $1 trillion over two decades and make little to no economic sense, according to industry and geopolitical analysts.

The prize is great on paper for a real estate tycoon like Trump—after all, Greenland would exceed the Louisiana Purchase as the largest geographic acquisition in U.S. history. But multiple specialists in the region and its resources dismiss the economic reasoning as nonsensical, given that Greenland already is open to greater U.S. investment and military scale-up. Greenland may be home to large reserves of critical minerals and crude oil, but they’re much cheaper to extract elsewhere in the world, including within the Lower 48, said Otto Svendsen, associate fellow specializing in the Arctic for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

… “The numbers just don’t add up at all,” Svendsen said. “It cannot be hammered home enough that the U.S. has an incredibly favorable arrangement at the moment with an incredible amount of access to Greenlandic territory, both to advance its security and its economic interests.” Despite ample efforts over the years to develop mines and drill for oil—the last, unsuccessful drilling bid was abandoned in 2011—Greenland today is home to zero oil production and just two active mines, neither of which extract the desired rare earths essential to computer, automotive, and military defense equipment. There’s a small gold mine and another for anorthosite—a mineral used to produce fiberglass, paint, and other common materials. While some rare earths and oil projects are in development—by U.S. companies—they remain in early stages, with no guarantees of success.

The relative lack of success over decades is no fluke, said Malte Humpert, senior fellow and founder of The Arctic Institute nonprofit think tank. “You’re dealing with ice, polar bears, darkness, lack of power, the sea ice being frozen, really low temperatures. It’s probably one of the roughest places on Earth,” Humpert said. “The fact that it hasn’t been done—when it could have been done—is really all you need to know. It’s very difficult to make it economical.”

… Greenland’s estimated rare earths reserves offer a smorgasbord of 1.5 million metric tons, including the more uncommon heavy rare earths. That would rank Greenland eighth worldwide, coincidentally just behind the United States, but well behind China and its 44 million tons, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. But as the research firm Wood Mackenzie says in a new report, “Here, ambition runs up against reality. Around 80% of the island is covered by the Greenland Ice Sheet, averaging a mile thick, meaning only limited work has been undertaken to quantify the true scale of Greenland’s deposits.” An even bigger challenge is the higher costs of developing a mining industry in Greenland’s harsh terrain, where there’s little to no existing infrastructure. There are just a few short, warmer windows when drilling and mining are practical; there is less daylight than almost anywhere on earth; and most of the terrain is accessible only by helicopter.

More at https://fortune.com/2026/01/17/weak-business-case-trump-acquiring-greenland-spend-1-trillion-few-returns-decades/

Pipaluk Lynge knows the history of how Indigenous people have been treated in the United States. And she’s well aware of the holes in the country’s health care system and its yawning economic inequality. Ms. Lynge, one of Greenland’s top officials and the leader of the Parliament’s foreign and security policy committee, chafes at President Trump’s offer to buy Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, and his insistence that Greenlanders would be better off as Americans.

“We’re not going to sell our soul,” she said. “We’re not stupid.”

As President Trump seems to toy with Greenland’s fate, a kaleidoscope of feelings swirl in Greenland itself. People are shocked, angry, confused, humiliated, insulted and, most of all, scared... On Wednesday, Greenland’s foreign minister is set to take part in a high-powered meeting in Washington, the first time this island has ever been directly involved in something of this magnitude. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance are holding talks with Greenlandic and Danish officials in the shadow of escalating threats from Mr. Trump, who recently vowed to “do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not.”

Interviews in the past few days with Greenlanders from different parts of the territory and different walks of life reveal that people on the island don’t want to be recolonized by a new outside power, and that only a small minority has even the faintest flicker of interest in joining the United States. They like their Scandinavian welfare system, with its free health care, free education and strong safety net. They feel connected to Denmark even if there are still raw feelings about earlier eras of colonialism and abuse. And they certainly don’t want to be bought by anyone, but acknowledge that economically they can’t stand on their own two feet. “It’s not the time to be independent,” said Nielsine Lange, a special-education teacher in Ilulissat, a town on the west coast. “It would be too dangerous, and people wouldn’t be responsible enough. We need to pull ourselves together first — independence is a goal, but there’s a long way to go.”

… Instead of trying to win hearts and minds, Mr. Trump’s approach to Greenland seems to reflect a view that in global affairs the strong act, vying with each other for dominance, and the weak live with the consequences. Just as he justified seizing control of Venezuela’s oil output in part by saying that otherwise China or Russia would do so, he has claimed that if the United States does not take over Greenland, one of those other powers will. Greenlanders don’t like that outlook, and especially his vow to simply “get” their island.

“We’ve never heard anyone talk like that about another country before,” said Ellen Frederiksen, a retired doctor in Narsaq, a town in the south.

More at https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/world/americas/greenland-fear-trump-us-takeover.html?unlocked_article_code=1.EVA.YkaA.R_BMQiah6pEH&smid=nytcore-ios-share