Doodley
Doodley's JournalI have an in-law family member who hero worships Charlie Kirk. He wears the T-shirt and has a Charlie Kirk sticker
on the back of his car. What would you think of him, based on this, and how would you handle this situation?
I asked Chat GPT to crunch the figures for the midterm elections - Not all good news, but reason for optimism
Best estimate for Trump approval on Election Day (Nov. 3, 2026): ~35%Likely range: 31%–39%
Most probable outcome: 34%–37%
Main reasons for the estimate
Inflation and cost-of-living concerns remain major public frustrations.
Health care affordability continues to rank as a top voter concern.
Economic anxiety appears stronger than confidence, especially among independents.
Midterm elections usually become a referendum on the president.
Trump’s controversies and behavior likely continue to hurt him with moderates and swing voters.
Ongoing wars or international instability could further weaken approval if conditions worsen.
Scenarios
Better-case scenario: 39%–42%
Inflation cools
Economy stabilizes
No major new crises
Base-case scenario: 34%–37%
Mixed economy
Continued polarization
Persistent voter fatigue
Worse-case scenario: 29%–33%
Recession or rising unemployment
New scandals or legal controversies
Major foreign-policy crisis
Important caveat
Trump’s core supporters remain highly loyal.
Even with relatively low approval, Republicans could still perform competitively in the midterms because turnout and district maps matter heavily.
Please estimate the election results in each scenario
Better-Case Scenario for Trump
(Approval: 39%–42%)
Republicans likely keep the Senate
Republicans likely narrowly keep the House
GOP losses would probably be limited to suburban swing districts
Democrats underperform expectations because:
Inflation improves
Economy avoids recession
Voters prioritize stability over backlash
Estimated outcome:
House: Republicans lose 0–10 seats
Senate: Republicans gain 0–2 seats or hold even
Base-Case Scenario
(Approval: 34%–37%)
Democrats likely win the House
Senate becomes a toss-up, slight GOP edge because of map advantages
Independents swing against Trump
Suburban districts move Democratic
Turnout among anti-Trump voters rises significantly
Estimated outcome
House: Democrats gain 15–30 seats
Senate: Republicans lose 0–2 seats, or narrowly hold control
Most likely political narrative
“Voters want a check on Trump”
Economic frustration outweighs partisan loyalty among moderates
Worse-Case Scenario
(Approval: 29%–33%)
Democrats likely win a clear House majority
Democrats have a strong chance to take the Senate
Republican turnout softens outside deep-red areas
Swing-state suburbs break heavily Democratic
Economic or foreign-policy crisis dominates campaign
Estimated outcome
House: Democrats gain 35–55 seats
Senate: Democrats gain 2–4 seats
Likely environment
Recession fears or rising unemployment
Constant scandal/legal controversy coverage
Public exhaustion with political chaos
Overall
Most Likely Outcome (my single best guess)
Democrats regain the House by a modest margin
Republicans either:
barely hold the Senate, or
lose it by 1 seat
National environment resembles:
2018 backlash energy, but weaker than 2018
stronger than 2022 anti-incumbent mood
My current probabilities
Democrats win House: ~70%
Republicans keep Senate: ~55%
Democrats win both chambers: ~35%
Republicans keep both chambers: ~20%
Trump Panics as Newsom Exposes Trump's Diaper Secret - Video
Keith Edwards breaks down the viral fallout from Gavin Newsom’s latest press conference, reacting to the Governor’s brutal trolling of Donald Trump’s health and the "diaper allegations" that have the MAGA movement in a tailspin as Newsom uses his state’s new family leave policies to highlight the President’s perceived decline.
WOW! This is how Democrats could communicate! One of the best ads I've ever seen by the England and Wales Green Party!
For those that do not know, UK local elections are next Thursday and political parties are allotted a TV slots for their political broadcasts. I love this messaging by the Green Party!
Trump and Blanche claim 86 47 means kill Trump. There is no case because this is what 86 actually means:
"86" (or "eighty-six"
is a common slang term meaning to throw out, discard, cancel, or refuse service to someone. Primarily used in the hospitality industry, it indicates an item is sold out or a customer is unwelcome. It also means to get rid of something, eliminate it, or kill.
History.com
Usage Examples & Contexts
Restaurant/Bar Industry: "We have to 86 the salmon," meaning the salmon is sold out. "That customer is too drunk; 86 him," meaning kick him out or stop serving him.
General Slang: "Let's 86 this idea," meaning to get rid of or cancel a plan.
Pop Culture: Chick Hicks in Pixar's Cars (2006) is car number 86, highlighting his habit of forcing competitors off the track.
Politics: In 2026, the phrase "8647" was interpreted as a reference to removing the 47th President of the United States.
www.getknowapp.com
Synonyms of 86
Verb: Discard, eliminate, cancel, remove, kick out, eject, dump, kill, dispose of.
Wikipedia.com
Origin Theories
While popular, its exact origin is uncertain. Common theories include:
1930s Soda Counter/Restaurant Slang: Referring to running out of an item.
Chumley’s Bar: The 1920s Prohibition-era bar at 86 Bedford St. in New York, where patrons were told to leave via the 86 address during raids.
Military Code: Reference to Article 86 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice (Unauthorized Absence/AWOL).
Door Frame Height: An old joke about an unruly customer being "86'd" (6 inches taller than an 8-foot door).
BBC.com
Analysis by Google AI
Would-be shooter accused Trump of being "awful," a "traitor" and retweeted Trump was able to fake assassination attempt
Trump is “quite capable of having staged a fake assassination attempt on himself to trick the American public,” argued one user in a message that Allen retweeted.
Allen appears to have started posting on the Bluesky social media platform in February 2025, a few weeks into Trump’s second term. That account frequently criticized the Trump administration’s policies and lamented that more powerful figures weren’t taking action against the president.
“Everyone already knows trump is a f**king awful person in multiple dimensions and no one has done sh*t,” the “coldforce” account wrote in April 2025.
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in a press conference with other Justice Department officials Monday that investigators are probing any connection Allen may have had to left wing groups, though Blanche was not asked about the posts specifically.
---SNIP---
Last month, the account posted to accuse Trump of being a “traitor” to the United States.
“Put a traitor BACK in office, get treason like, I don’t understand why people are surprised by the US ripping itself apart,” the user wrote in March. “I’m pretty sure that’s the expected outcome of having a traitor at the helm.”
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/27/us/correspondents-dinner-shooting-suspect-social-media-invs
Why did Trump go to the "fake news" Correspondents Dinner? Best answer is the winner!
They can do what no Democrat can do. They are eating away at Trump's base by reaching tens of millions of Republicans
Here's a list of the leading media rats who have already left the sinking ship.
I think they are eroding Trump's support from within, in a way that Democrats cannot do.
It is a war of attrition, and day by day, they are reaching Republicans and undermining the MAGA propaganda machine.
These are the folk that are going to help Democrats win big in November!
Joe Rogan
~10–15M Typical Reach (per episode/video)
30M+ Total Following
Tucker Carlson
~1–10M+ Typical Reach (per episode/video)
10M+ Total Following
Theo Von
~1–5M Typical Reach (per episode/video)
5–10M Total Following
Adin Ross
~0.1–0.5M Typical Reach (per episode/video)
5–10M Total Following
Andrew Schulz
~1–3M Typical Reach (per episode/video)
3–5M Total Following
Candace Owens
~0.5–2M Typical Reach (per episode/video)
5–10M Total Following
Combined audience (important insight)
Unique combined regular audience: likely 30–60+ million people
Total reach (including casual viewers): easily 100M+ globally
But the key point: It’s not additive — the same people often watch multiple of them.
The real takeaway
This group isn’t just “big audiences”—it’s a coherent media lane:
Competes directly with traditional TV/news
Dominates podcasts + YouTube + streaming
Especially powerful with:
Young men
People distrustful of institutions
Long-form content consumers
Analysis by ChatGPT
Even if he wanted to, does Trump have the cognitive capability to make anything better than it was before?
"I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran
No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines..."
Donald J. Trump
April 12, 2026
At this point, the rest of the world can see that Trump is an international terrorist.
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Member since: Mon Jun 20, 2016, 06:20 PMNumber of posts: 12,084